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Friday, Grain Comments


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Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

The information below was taken from the Grain Comments section of my twice a day newsletter Commodity Insite. The information was broadcast a few minutes before 7 a.m. Chicago time. Hope you find something of interest.


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grain complex


The USDA grain report yesterday, showed bearish data and a negative surprise for corn and the market fell 15 cents a bushel. The report was a bullish surprise for soybeans and still values fell fractionally. The wheat data was clearly bearish and prices fell 7 to 8 cents everywhere. The day was bearish grains and a huge disappointment for the bulls. Still, the data was price positive soybeans which may support prices moving forward.

The big take away from yesterdays report in my view is this: Both the corn and soybean crops are slowest maturing in history. That means the importanace of the November report, a month from now could be far more bullish than bearish. Plus, until the combines are running and the harvest complete it may not be until January we get a true handle on grain production, yeilds, acres and so on.

I am not trying to be pie in the sky bullish corn or soybeans. But I am dead right about the upcoming November report looming large. The USDA could easily lower yeilds and production on corn due to its maturity level as of now. In the case of soybeans, the data was a bullish surprise and for the November report it could be more bullish yet.

This morning, the dollar is lower once again, Trump expected to meet with a top Chinese trade negotiator and the Dow is smartly higher and grains are on the plus as well. The upside leader is soybeans with futures up 8 to 9 cents while corn is 3 to 4 higher. Wheat is 2 to 3 higher in Chicago. I viewed the soybean report yesterday as a bullish surprise and the trade today has me excited!

Hold tight to existing positions.

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The information above was sent to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter, my brokerage clients and to those that recently purchased my book, Haunted By Markets. If you would like more information contact me at commodityinsite1@gmail.com. Or, call me at 406 682 5010.


There is no substitute for timely and accurate information.


And as I type furiously away, the only markets in the red are metals, the dollar and cattle. Talk about strange bedfellows! However, the day is quite bullish which means any market that ends in the red today ( metals, the dollar and cattle) could be, may be and should be lower Monday. Avoid the long side of each of those markets. Avoid the long side!!


The time is 10:19 a.m. Chicago



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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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