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Grains Report 10/10/19


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DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,611 13,173-13,758 13,799 14,420
Corn Yield 166.8 164.5-169.3 168.2 176.4
Harvested Acres 81.5 80.1-82.0 82.0 81.7
Soybean Production 3,571 3,473-3,634 3,633 4,544
Soybean Yield 47.1 46.0-48.1 47.9 51.6
Harvested Acres 75.8 74.5-77.2 75.9 88.1
Corn harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 13,446 166.0 81.0 3,548 47.0 75.5
AgriSource 13,688 166.7 82.0 3,551 46.8 75.9
Allendale 13,755 167.7 N/A 3,604 47.5 N/A
DC Analysis 13,678 166.8 82.0 3,593 47.4 75.9
Doane 13,500 165.0 81.8 3,565 47.0 75.9
EDF Man 13,735 167.5 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
Farm Futures 13,758 167.9 82.0 3,634 47.9 75.9
Grain Cycles 13,738 167.5 82.0 3,604 47.5 75.9
INTL FCStone 13,646 169.3 80.6 3,583 48.1 74.5
Kapco Futures 13,724 168.2 81.6 3,593 47.7 75.3
Sid Love Consulting 13,325 164.5 81.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
North Star Commodity 13,732 168.5 81.5 3,574 47.1 75.9
Prime Ag 13,570 166.5 81.5 3,529 46.5 75.9
RJO Brien 13,653 166.5 N/A 3,559 46.9 N/A
RMC 13,529 166.0 81.5 3,473 46.0 75.5
US Commodities 13,653 166.5 82.0 3,582 47.2 75.9
VantageRM 13,694 167.0 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
Western Milling 13,173 164.5 80.1 3,591 46.5 77.2

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,684 1,257-1,963 2,190
Soybeans 510 388-584 640
Wheat 1,014 965-1,054 1,014
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market Concepts 1,450 505 1,005
AgriSource 1,727 448 1,025
Allendale 1,905 582 1,037
DC Analysis 1,597 505 1,004
Doane 1,600 465 1005
EDF Man 1,794 482 1,026
Farm Futures 1,963 533 1,047
Grain Cycles 1,762 552 1,017
INTL FCStone 1,665 584 1,002
Kapco Futures 1,758 520 1,010
Sid Love Consulting 1,489 500 984
North Star Commodity 1,842 535 980
Prime-Ag 1,779 469 1,025
RJO Brien 1,612 510 1,054
RMC 1,689 388 1,025
US Commodities 1,612 498 1,041
VantageRM 1,808 581 999
Western Milling 1,257 521 965

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 323.8 319.0-330.0 329.6
Soybeans 110.7 109.0-113.0 112.4
Wheat 277.5 276.0-280.0 277.2
2019-20
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 296.1 291.0-301.0 306.3
Soybeans 96.9 92.3-108.8 99.2
Wheat 285.7 280.5-288.7 286.5
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 319.0 109.0 276.0 296.0 97.0 283.0
Allendale 322.2 110.6 278.5 300.9 97.8 288.7
Doane 321.0 110.0 277.5 292.5 95.0 285.5
EDF Man N/A N/A N/A 296.0 95.0 284.0
Farm Futures N/A N/A N/A 298.0 96.3 286.7
INTL FCStone 321.0 113.0 276.3 295.8 108.8 286.9
North Star Comm 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 95.5 286.0
Prime-Ag 320.0 111.0 278.0 294.0 95.0 287.0
RMC 321.2 109.8 280.0 291.4 92.3 287.5
US Commodities 329.6 109.1 277.2 291.0 95.1 280.5
Western Milling 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 98.0 287.0

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Oct 10
For the week ended Oct 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2019-2020 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2018-19.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 521.9 0.0 13426.6 11596.1 4500.4 8.9
hrw 150.3 0.0 5030.4 3379.0 1323.2 0.0
srw 20.9 0.0 1693.7 1466.8 588.6 4.2
hrs 75.4 0.0 3628.3 3501.6 1302.2 4.8
white 224.2 0.0 2578.4 2965.8 1081.9 0.0
durum 51.1 0.0 495.8 282.9 204.5 0.0
corn 284.5 0.0 9996.0 20705.7 7914.8 127.4
soybeans 2092.5 3.0 16387.4 20548.7 12359.2 3.0
soymeal 1167.3-a 0.0 3463.1 3948.0 3386.0 66.2
soyoil 127.1-b 0.0 195.9 149.7 191.4 0.0
upland cotton 188.8 -5.3 8929.2 9123.3 7024.0 696.1
pima cotton 9.6 0.0 198.0 290.8 122.7 0.0
sorghum 13.7 0.0 148.9 157.5 105.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 57.5 55.7 40.7 0.0
rice 99.8 0.0 1334.2 879.1 665.0 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Sep 27-Oct 3, which resulted
in a net increase of 364.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
802.6 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-19.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Sep 27-Oct 3, which resulted
in a net increase of 1.2 thousand metric tons. Also includes
125.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2018-19.

DJ Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean Crop of 120.4M Tons for 2019-2020 Season
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency expects the country’s farmers to produce a record amount of soybeans in the 2019-2020 season as producers increase the area planted and better weather is expected for the end of this year.
Brazilian farmers will grow 120.4 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which planting has already started, an increase of 4.7% from the 2018-2019 season, when 115 million tons were produced. The area planted is forecast to rise 1.9% to 36.6 million hectares.
Unusually hot and dry weather in some soybean-producing states at the end of last year and the start of this year reduced yields for the 2018-2019 season in areas, leading to a smaller crop in the season than the record 119.3 million tons grown in 2017-2018.
The relatively small increase in the area planted is due to uncertainty about international demand in the face of the continuing trade dispute between the US, normally the world’s biggest soybean producer, and China, the world’s biggest consumer, Conab said.
Lower prices and the increasing cost of opening up new areas for planting also contributed to the slower increase in area planted, according to the agency.
Brazilian farmers will produce a smaller total corn crop in 2019-2020, of 98.4 million metric tons, down 1.7% from the record 100 million tons produced in 2018-2019, Conab said.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 11, 2019 159 Oct 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 11, 2019 41 Oct 03, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed as the big Winter storm arrived in the Great Plains and created some support for HRW. Russia and Ukraine sold a lot of Wheat to Egypt to support HRW as well.. Chicago SRW and Minneapolis were a little lower. The support in the Minneapolis market came despite a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great Plains and in western Canada this week. Very little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada. Good progress was made in planting the Winter crops. The Winter Wheat crop is getting planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Midwest Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting underway. USDA will issue another monthly supply and demand update on Thursday but few changes in ending stocks levels are anticipated for this month. The Small Grains production report showed Winter Wheat production about as expected and uncertain Spring Wheat and Durum estimates that will be revised next month.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a big storm hit the rest of this week. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the big storm moves out in the next day or two. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 502, 506, and 510 December. Support is at 492, 487, and 485 December, with resistance at 506, 512, and 515 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 417, 425, and 433 December. Support is at 408, 401, and 399 December, with resistance at 414, 420, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 534, 531, and 522 December, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 552 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher once again as the long grain harvest is coming to the end. Harvest activities are about over in Gulf Coast areas with many producers reporting less production than last year. Smut has been a big problem in Texas although quality reports have held up. Mississippi yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading mostly #2. Arkansas yield reports are reported to be holding well despite the extreme growing conditions this year and quality reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being harvested. Good weather in Arkansas and Mississippi should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two. Demand for long grains in the export market has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1179, 1173, and 1162 November, with resistance at 1205, 1220, and 1226 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed mostly lower on weaker ethanol demand data. Ideas that crops in the Great Plains and western Midwest could get damaged from the Winter storm that is starting near the Rocky Mountains provided some support. Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago intensified as the weather service is calling for up to two feet of snow in western areas. USDA showed that progress remains far behind and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely. USDA will issue a production estimate but probably has no real idea of what is going to be the final production as the harvest is just now getting underway in most of the country. Yields so far have been good in parts of Iowa and in a few places east of the Mississippi River, but below historical averages in many areas east of the river. Demand for US Corn has also been disappointing so far this year. The export pace is down to almost half of last year and ethanol demand has been lower than last year. That could keep ending stocks projections relatively higher in the reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 396, 397, and 404 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 381 December, and resistance is at 397, 401, and 403 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 290 and 304 December. Support is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 290 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on hews that China had offered to buy a lot of US ag goods under a smaller trade deal. Then the US sanctioned Chinese officials for mistreatment of Muslims in the country and now there are ideas that little or no progress will be made. forecasts for a significant Winter storm with freezing temperatures to affect much of the Great Plains and the western Midwest. The market is also concerned about the weather that will happen later this week. There is the risk of significant quality losses and perhaps yield losses from the event. USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight deterioration in crop condition in its reports Monday night. Traders are waiting now for the next round of production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Thursday. Harvest activities are only now getting started so the data that USDA will have to work with on production will be less than normal. Initial yield reports have not been real strong so USDA can find less but just how much less is still a big question. USDA will also have to work with the demand side of the ledger as trade problems still need o be resolved. Demand so far has been good but how USDA sees demand is an open question. Either way, the potential for reduced ending stocks is great and these ideas should help support futures prices this week. The next round of US-China trade talks get underway today and the trade is not expecting a positive outcome
Overnight News: China bought 398,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 925, 927, and 932 November. Support is at 919, 911, and 908 November, and resistance is at 924, 936, and 941 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00, 312.00, and 320.00 December. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2980, 2950, and 2930 December, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on some position squaring before the USDA reports today. Support also came from the rally in Chicago Soybean Oil. Snow is expected in western areas today but cold weather are expected through the end of the week. Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one-third complete. Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger outside markets. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today. Traders anticipated improved export demand for the first third of the month when private surveyors release estimates. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 375,117 tons, from 357,570 tons last month. AmSpec said exports are now 368,737 tons, down 6.2% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

DJ Malaysia’s September Palm Oil Exports 1.41M Tons; Down 19% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 19% on month at 1.41 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
September August Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,842,433 1,821,548 Up 1.15%
Palm Oil Exports 1,409,945 1,735,645 Dn 18.77%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 79,428 89,489 Dn 11.24%
Closing Stocks 2,448,272 2,240,523 Up 9.27%
Crude Palm Oil 1,353,087 1,290,578 Up 4.84%
Processed Palm Oil 1,095,185 949,945 Up 15.29%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible later this week with some snow far western areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and below too much below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +33 Dec +165 Dec +65 Sep +31 Nov +12 Dec N/A
November +42 Dec +80 Dec +42 Nov
December +50 Dec +87 Dec +38 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Oct. 9, 2019.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 442.80 -22.00 Nov 2019 up 2.80
Track Thunder Bay 473.30 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.50
Track Vancouver 483.30 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 532.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 535.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 540.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 535.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 537.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 542.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 530.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 430.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,130.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 141.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1915)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 135,760 lots, or 4.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,380 3,380 3,351 3,351 3,356 3,371 15 8 290
Jan-20 3,410 3,416 3,386 3,400 3,395 3,401 6 110,564 204,104
Mar-20 – – – 3,405 3,404 3,405 1 0 34
May-20 3,706 3,714 3,673 3,680 3,694 3,690 -4 24,078 64,730
Jul-20 3,727 3,727 3,727 3,727 3,736 3,727 -9 2 24
Sep-20 3,770 3,778 3,733 3,736 3,751 3,743 -8 1,108 3,314
Corn
Turnover: 996,230 lots, or 18.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,791 1,804 1,789 1,803 1,787 1,796 9 17,642 29,106
Jan-20 1,830 1,841 1,827 1,838 1,825 1,835 10 646,478 1,317,976
Mar-20 1,860 1,876 1,860 1,871 1,850 1,868 18 123,102 241,188
May-20 1,901 1,919 1,901 1,912 1,897 1,912 15 193,498 489,358
Jul-20 1,930 1,943 1,930 1,936 1,926 1,938 12 1,670 5,656
Sep-20 1,959 1,972 1,958 1,968 1,952 1,966 14 13,840 65,308
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,201,818 lots, or 64.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,979 2,987 2,956 2,984 2,974 2,967 -7 38,844 17,758
Dec-19 2,984 2,988 2,970 2,975 2,975 2,976 1 91,012 171,674
Jan-20 2,959 2,964 2,939 2,957 2,942 2,951 9 1,438,582 1,998,854
Mar-20 2,929 2,942 2,922 2,925 2,920 2,929 9 158 802
May-20 2,880 2,891 2,852 2,875 2,846 2,870 24 568,948 967,402
Jul-20 2,850 2,897 2,850 2,883 2,838 2,878 40 342 1,570
Aug-20 2,910 2,910 2,894 2,894 2,883 2,898 15 8 58
Sep-20 2,919 2,934 2,894 2,916 2,886 2,911 25 63,924 152,940
Palm Oil
Turnover: 703,416 lots, or 33.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 4,880 4,880 4,880 0 0 0
Nov-19 – – – 4,836 4,836 4,836 0 0 4
Dec-19 4,758 4,812 4,758 4,812 4,742 4,786 44 28 18
Jan-20 4,792 4,824 4,758 4,792 4,766 4,792 26 631,012 474,856
Feb-20 4,862 4,862 4,862 4,862 4,912 4,862 -50 2 714
Mar-20 – – – 4,948 4,948 4,948 0 0 2
Apr-20 5,010 5,010 5,010 5,010 4,916 5,010 94 2 6
May-20 5,060 5,098 5,036 5,070 5,044 5,066 22 70,702 142,332
Jun-20 5,056 5,056 5,056 5,056 5,132 5,056 -76 2 8
Jul-20 – – – 4,904 4,976 4,904 -72 0 602
Aug-20 – – – 4,972 5,046 4,972 -74 0 2
Sep-20 5,140 5,156 5,106 5,130 5,108 5,134 26 1,668 11,102
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 481,890 lots, or 28.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 5,942 5,942 5,942 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,900 5,900 5,900 0 0 12
Jan-20 5,998 6,016 5,962 5,990 5,978 5,986 8 406,486 691,036
Mar-20 6,058 6,058 6,058 6,058 6,026 6,058 32 2 512
May-20 6,086 6,090 6,046 6,068 6,048 6,066 18 69,388 241,024
Jul-20 – – – 6,084 6,066 6,084 18 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 5,968 5,952 5,968 16 0 0
Sep-20 6,126 6,138 6,096 6,112 6,120 6,112 -8 6,014 26,580
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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