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Corn - Just My Opinion

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Weekly Corn Export Sales old crop vs. 500-800 K T. expected new crop vs. none expected

Flat price corn takes a pause in its recent rally. This is understandable given the USDA report tomorrow, growing season ending temps in the northwest reaches of the Corn Belt, another low weekly ethanol grind and whatever the outcome of the higher echelon US/China trade meetings scheduled for tomorrow and Friday. The debate goes on as to what kind of impact we will have with the season ending temps forecasted for Friday into early next week.

Trade guesstimates for tomorrows USDA corn production/supply-demand report suggest the following; yield down 0.7 bpa, harvested acres down 368 K, production down 115 million bu., US carryout down 406 million bu. and World carryout down 8.0 M T.

Interior cash corn (basis) runs mostly steady on the day. Selected processor locations are showing slightly better basis levels in response to the recent rally in the ethanol market. River locations appear fully steady in response the Gulf basis continuing to grind higher. Given the recent rally Im told not all that much cash corn is moving. It is my thought the producer wants to see what the USDA has to say as to production on tomorrows report as well as any impact from the season ending temps in the northwest reaches of the Corn Belt. The recent improvement in corn spreads took a breather today along with the flat price.

Corn charts look strong but we are coming into some pretty decent looking technical resistance levels; the mid-low $4.00s (Dec). The bottoming formation that was completed has a simple measurement to $4.01 . The recent downflagging formation measures to $4.01 . Im told the 200 day MA also comes in at that level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/10

Dec Corn: $3.84 - $4.02 (?)

March Corn: $3.95 $4.13 (?)

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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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