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Play the long ball


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The soy is bouncing and has some reason to at present, given the Chinese purchases and the weather concerns. The soy yields are something to watch as harvest gets underway. This of course will be important . It is equally important to remember the global soy situation remains more than ample. The SA planting has some weather concerns. However, it seems probable that the ARG acres will increase given the soy to corn ratio at decision time. In addition, the global soy demand is less than a year ago given the Chinese ASF situation. This will reduce soy needs, but will increase demand for the products. Mostly vegoils. It is important to note that the ARG have had seven crushing plants approved for exports of protein to China. Also the black sea now is sending various meals to China. The main point here is watch the oilshare. There could be a significant move yet to come this year. A couple thoughts. The beans can rally a bit more. Look to sell old crop stocks on a rally nov 19 to 910-920, new crop sales should be considered in nov 20 at 950-965. This may prove rich in the long run. In my opinion the soy from a macro global perspective has changed. The world will offer competition to us especially in the meal. This could change pricing structures. Sell rallies and take profits in the cash. As always these are my thoughts, quantify your risk.

Be well,

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com



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About the author


John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.

 

In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.

 

John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.

 

Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449
Email: jwalsh@walshtrading.com

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