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The Nemenoff Report 09/12/19


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Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 0’27 higher at 161’25., 10 Yr. Notes 0’12 higher at 130’09.0 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’06.0 higher at 19’04.5. The long Dec.19/short Dec. Eurodollar spread came into 44 points premium the Dec. 20 contract giving us the opportunity to liquidate the spread below the recommended 50 points. This spread narrowed 20 points last week indicating a overbought situation in Treasuries in general. This morning the ECB lowered rates by 5 basis points, half the expected 10 points. This caused treasuries to rally from recent lows. Also last week we had a disappointing jobs Report showing 30,000 new jobs well below the guesstimates 65,000. I am now changing my focus from the short side on rallies to the long side on breaks. I will buy the Dec. 5 yr. on breaks below 118’10. 

Dec. Corn is currently 1’4 higher at 361’4, Nov. Beans 8’2 higher at 874’6 and Dec. Wheat 1’6 higher at 479’2. Crop report today at 11:00am. If you are long use a stop at 354’0 (basis Dec.) and or take profits above 380’0 Cattle: 

Live and Feeder Cattle finally have shown some life rallying nearly 300 points yesterday. As expected Sept FC held the 130.00 support level and technically looks like an upside breakout. I remain a buyer in Oct.LC below 98.25 with a stop at 95.25. If LCV trades above 100.25 raise your stop to break even.

Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 31 cents higher at 18.49. If you took partial profits above 19.00 look at breaks below 18.20 as an opportunity to replace them. 

S&P’s: Sept. S&P’s are currently 6.00 higher at 3008.25 well off the high made over night of 3020.00 after Pres. Trump extended the date from Oct.1 to Oct.15 for a 5-10% raise on tariffs against China. Treat as a trading affair between 2975.00 and 3015.00. 

Currencies: I am on the sidelines.       

Regards, Marc

 



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About the author


Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc began his career as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Marc Nemenoff quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the CME and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations & Advertising, and Orientation & Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included: Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Contact Marc Nemenoff: (800) 769-7021 or at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com

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