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Traders Look to Supply and Demand


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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 12, 2019.

Grain markets were mixed overnight as traders look to this morning's Supply and Demand report. The day also offers the latest glimpse at export sales data which traders will monitor for signs of Chinese buying.

Reuters compiled average analyst estimates for today's USDA report. For corn, analysts expect to see yield at 167.2 bushels per acre with production at 13.672. Soybean yield is expected at 47.2 bpa with production at 3.577. The report is due at 11:00 AM CDT.

Weekly export sales will be out this morning at 7:30 AM. Traders expect to see corn sales of 450,000 to 950,000 tonnes, soybeans 550,000 to 1,150,000, wheat 300,000 to 600,000, soymeal 125,000 to 325,000, and soyoil 5,000 to 35,000.

Argentine soy farmers and crushers expect a boost in demand next year after the South American grains giant won long-sought approval from China to export soymeal to the world's biggest consumer of the livestock feed. (Reuters)

Weekly ethanol covered activity for the week ending September 6. This specific weeks run saw 1.023 million barrels per day. That was 0.3% over last year in the same first week. USDA had been using 5.425 billion bushels for its old crop corn for ethanol goal. Allendale expects that to be revised down to 5.379 billion. USDA has new crop, now current crop, at 5.475. That would be 1.8% over last year.

White House officials pressured biofuel companies in a Wednesday meeting to take a deal that lifts biofuel blending mandates, warning they must accept the deal by Friday for regulatory purposes, three sources familiar with the discussions said. The meeting was held to discuss the Trump administration's plan to increase the mandates, after its decision last month to exempt 31 refineries from an obligation to blend ethanol with gasoline. (Reuters)

The weekly Iowa/Southern Minnesota hog weight report showed 9/7 live weights at 281.5 lbs. That was up from 278.3 the week before. The week to week change is not important as we should be rising seasonally at this time anyway. We are more focused on the fact this weight number is 0.8% over last year's 279.1 for the same time period.

The chairman of the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange told a corn industry conference they continue to work on an upcoming release of a live hog futures contract.

Cash cattle traded at $96/$97 in very light volume. The previous week averaged $100. The weekly Fed Cattle Exchange saw two trades at $99 but those were rejected by the sellers.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 5.49 and select down 2.58. The CME feeder index is 135.99. Pork cut-out values were up .46.


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About the author


Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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