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Movement on Trade Talks?

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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 11, 2019. We're honoring Patriot Day today!

Grain markets are mixed as traders wait for the release of USDA's Supply and Demand report tomorrow. The yield estimates on this report will be watched closely as the data will include USDA field checks for the first time this year, mixed with their usual farmer survey.

Reuters compiled average analyst estimates for tomorrow's USDA report. For corn, analysts expect to see yield at 167.2 bushels per acre with production at 13.672. Soybean yield is expected at 47.2 bpa with production at 3.577.

The South China Morning Post reports that, "China is expected to agree to buy more American agricultural products in hopes of a better trade deal with the United States as the two nations prepare for a meeting between their top negotiators next month." It is not the first time we have seen this type of headline, however.

Conab estimates Brazil corn crop at 99.984 million tonnes, up from their previous estimate of 99.312. They see soybeans at 115.030 million tonnes, down slightly from 115.072. Corn exports were estimated at 35.000 million tonnes from 34.500, while soybeans were left unchanged at 70 (for 2018/19).

The French Farm Ministry estimates the country's soft wheat harvest at 39.45 million tonnes, up from last month's estimate of 38.2. If realized, this would be France's second largest wheat crop ever.

China's State Council indicated it wanted large scale hog farms to make up 58% of all farms by 2020. The government is encouraging larger farms under the belief they are more efficient as well as a lower risk of disease transmission.

China will allow the import of soymeal livestock feed from Argentina for the first time under a deal announced by Buenos Aires on Tuesday, an agreement that will link the world's top exporter of the feed with the top global consumer. (Reuters)

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a new case of African Swine Fever in the Northwestern region of Ningxia. This farm held 226 hogs, 13 had already died.
Brazil's Agriculture Ministry indicated China had approved 25 Brazilian meat plants for export. 17 of those plants are beef, six chicken, one pork and one donkey. The Brazilian government reports beef exports to China are up 48% in the first eight months of the year.

The cattle showlist estimate for this week, the number of finished cattle offered to packers, showed a 21,600 head decline from last week.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 1.57 and select down 0.94. The CME feeder index is 136.44. Pork cut-out values were up .08.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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