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Today's Playbook - Blue Line Morning Express


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Morning Express

As you know, our report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:30 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 4 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold. Contact our trade desk, we cover more - Treasuries, Nat Gas, Copper etc -312-278-0500 or info@bluelinefutures.com

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E-mini S&P (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2906, down 18.75

Fundamentals:Global benchmarks are surging this morning after Hong Kongs leader Carrie Lam announced the withdrawal of the extradition bill that set off weeks of violent protests. Hong Kongs Hang Seng finished up 3.9% and U.S indices followed suit; the S&P and NQ are up give-or-take 1%. Lawmakers in the U.K have also soothed angst, rejecting Prime Minister Johnsons potential No-Deal Brexit path. The British pound has snapped back from the lowest level since 1985 but the only certainties surrounding Brexit are that there are none, but the can potentially gets kicked down the road to January. Broadly speaking, risk-sentiment is much better today despite no fresh news on the U.S and China trade front. In fact, the rebound in commodity prices along with stocks would lead one to believe there has been progress. Amidst deteriorating economic conditions, traders and investors alike are placing too much emphasis on both Hong Kong and Brexit when both are overshadowed by work still to be done. Look no further than the ISM Manufacturing data yesterday that contracted at the worst pace since February 2016.Bill Baruch joined CNBCs Closing Bell to talk about ISM, the line in the sand for Copper and what it all could mean for stocks.

With the odds of a 50-basis point cut in two weeks mounting to nearly 10% this morning after St. Louis Fed President Bullard called for such action yesterday, todays Fed speak is squarely in focus. NY Fed President Williams talks at 8:30 am CT, San Francisco Fed President Bowman and Bullard both speak at 11:30 am CT. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari is due at noon and Chicago Fed President Evans is at 2:15. Remember, Williams, Bullard and Evans are the voters in two weeks.

Technicals:Stocks are rebounding sharply from a dull start to the week. Ultimately, strong line in the sand support below held through yesterday and price action is now out above key levels that help the bulls regain a near-term edge. Still, the tape is not bullish until it can prove a breakout close above our ceiling of rare major four-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Crude Oil (October)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 53.94, down 1.16

Fundamentals:Crude Oil is snapping back this morning along with the broader risk-environment. Early estimates for tomorrows EIA data show expectations for a draw of 3.5 mb of Crude. This comes on the heels of last weeks massive 10.027 mb draw. This is not the only energy-centric news driving prices higher. After Bloomberg reported yesterday that a large block of five OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, shipped an average of 736,000 bpd more in July than August there were further reports that Saudis exports only actually fell to nearly a two-year low. All in all, the price of Crude remains in a large range consolidation pattern until it can find a catalyst to break it out form this range.

Technicals:Price action traded to a session low of 52.84 to start the week before bouncing back ahead of settlement. After hitting firs key support, it did not settle below major three-star support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1555.9, up 26.5

Fundamentals:After an extremely constructive technical path through the long weekend, Gold found a massive tailwind with the worst ISM Manufacturing data since February 2016. This surged the metal to an overnight high of 1559.2 before positive news out of Hong Kong poured cold water over global fears. Ultimately, not much has changed out there, but stocks are trying to tell a different story. Fed speak becomes ever important today after yesterday voting member St. Louis Fed President Bullard called for a 50-basis point cut at the meeting in two weeks. NY Fed President Williams talks at 8:30 am CT, San Francisco Fed President Bowman and Bullard both speak at 11:30 am CT. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari is due at noon and Chicago Fed President Evans is at 2:15. Remember, Williams, Bullard and Evans are the voters in two weeks.

Technicals:Price action has held first support coming back from yesterdays high at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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