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Coffee Prices Near 14 Year Low

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Coffee Futures---Coffee futures in the December contract are trading higher by 35 points at 98.35 a pound as prices are still hovering right near a 14-year low looking to retest major support around the 95 level which was touched on multiple occasions in the month of May only to rally every single time.

At the present time I am not involved as I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for a bottom to occur, however fundamentally speaking coffee supplies are on the rise and continue to undercut coffee prices after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) last Monday raised its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate to 3.92 mln bags from a July estimate of a 3.11 mln bag surplus.

The Columbian Coffee Growers Federation reported last Monday that July coffee production in Columbia the world's 2nd biggest arabica producer jumped +25% y/y to 1.3 million bags. Coffee prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as the chart structure is poor as I'm advising clients to avoid this market at this time as the commodities in general still remain week due to a recession developing in Europe and no trade agreement with China.

I see no reason to be a buyer at this time despite the fact that the Brazilian harvest is about 95% complete as that is a bullish fundamental factor going forward seasonably speaking.




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About the author

Michael is the sole owner of SEERYFUTURES.COM which is a commodity futures and options consulting, advisory, and educational firm.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg News, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He also writes market commentary for several commodity websites and is interviewed for commodity comments by the Wall Street Journal. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Michael started his career in 1990 at the Chicago Board of Trade as a runner. He soon worked his way up to becoming a Series 3 broker. He works with seasoned traders as well as novice beginners educating them on trading the futures markets as well as using simple and complex option strategies. Michael covers all markets including grains, metals, energies, and all other futures markets that are traded.
To Michael the biggest lesson any trader needs to learn is risk management. Michael believes this is the most important factor in trading. He also works with traders to help them determine the proper risk for their trading style. Michael has spent a lot of time educating his clients to help them understand trading strategies and trading techniques while enjoying spending quality time with customers going over the markets or just talking general trading philosophies.

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