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Today's Playbook - Blue Line Morning Express


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Morning Express

As you know, our report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:30 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 4 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold. Contact our trade desk, we cover more - Treasuries, Nat Gas, Copper etc -312-278-0500 or info@bluelinefutures.com

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E-mini S&P (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2840.75, down 91.25

Fundamentals:True volatility is increasing daily; after a sharper reversal yesterday of Tuesdays reversal, the S&P finished down 3.1% and its Average Daily Range is above 50 for the first time since January. U.S benchmarks extended losses overnight to our next major three-star support level (discussed in Technicals) but are turning green on reports China wants to meet the U.S halfway on trade. This comes after China issued a warning overnight that a new round of tariffs violates an agreement President Trump and President Xi set in Japan and would be cause for retaliatory action.

The rollercoaster price action leads into a deluge of U.S data. July Retail Sales is due at 7:30 am CT accompanied by Nonfarm Productivity and fresh August NY Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing. To note here, Retail Sales has been a bright spot in the economy since January. However, the broader retail sector not so much.Bill Baruch joined CNBCs Trading Nation yesterday to discuss XRT, the retail ETF.Industrial Production is released at 8:15 am CT and followed by Business Inventories at 9:00. The market seems less focused on gyrations in the odds of a 50-basis point cut by the Federal Reserve next month instead of only 25 basis points. For this reason, we do believe the market wants to see better data, something that signals the U.S economy is turning a brighter corner. However, recessionary-like reads will invigorate deeper fears likely encourage further selling. Better data will also help lift Treasury yields in the midst of the current capitulatory price action.Bill Baruch joined CNBC Trading Nation yesterday to discuss Treasury yields and the banking sector.

Technicals:We said here yesterday that if price action is not constructive above major three-star support in the S&P at 2860-2866.75 and similarly designated levels in the NQ that selling will accelerate. This is exactly what happened and the only support level below 2860-2866.75 in the S&P was our next major three-star support level at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Crude Oil (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 55.23 down 1.87

Fundamentals:Heavy waves of selling abated in the second half of yesterdays session. Call the selling exacerbated within the energy sector or even that a less bearish EIA inventory report became fully digested. Still, price action dripped lower overnight in whats developing as a failure at higher prices through the week. Also weighing on the tape are reports that Iraq is pumping above the agreed upon ceiling. Upbeat comments from China this morning helped turn broad sentiment lifting Crude off session lows; they want to meet the U.S halfway on trade.

Technicals:As we noted here yesterday, we were looking for confirmation from the EIA report before turning a slight Bearish Bias. The technical landscape is telling us that rallies need to be sold and the decisive move below ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1527.8, up 13.7

Fundamentals:Gold settled yesterday right at a crucial level of resistance and is staving off sellers this morning despite broadly upbeat U.S economic data. Retail Sales, NY Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing and Nonfarm Productivity all beat. However, Industrial Production did miss. The 30-year Bond yield stuck its nose below 2% for the first time ever this morning but prices are more than a point off the high. Overall, the landscape for Gold remains favorable as long as the technicals remains constructive.



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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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