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September Deliveries

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The USDA report..............Believe it, or not!....Regardless, we're not running out of corn,beans or, hard red wheat this year. But, Mother Nature can make us worry if we do not get an extended growing season and a few more weeks to mature the corn crop this year. The 6 to 10 day forecast of warmer and wetter than normal for the Heartland is conducive for crop development.

There appears to be no sense of urgency to own receipts of anything as we approach September deliveries. There still appears to be a little bit of a disconnect with Chicago wheat as quality has been an issue yet, with WU/CU above $1.00 and only a 20 cent discount with the vomitoxin unwheat stocks there's no urgency to swith to soft red wheat from corn in the feed ration. Stocks to use ratio projected at 39% is tighter than usual but we anticipate more soft red seedings this Fall to alleviate this tightness next year. Lots of uncertainty and disconnect with the Chicago contract. Smart guys appear to be standing aside and waiting to see how things play out. Field reports fromTexas are promising with early corn harvest. Reports are that producers are holding onto stocks.Where's the incentive to store?

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About the author

Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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