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Corn - Just My Opinion


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Sept Corn closed 19 1/4 cents lower ($3.66), Dec 16 1/4 cents lower ($3.76 1/2) & March 13 1/4 cents lower ($3.90)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.048 cents a gallon lower ($1.288) & Oct $0.047 cents lower ($1.293)

Flat price corn and spreads continue to reel lower from yesterdays USDA data. Most fundamental participants remain confused as to acres planted, harvested vs. the prevent plant acres. Adding to the acreage confusion no one wants to believe the increase in yield. There is lots of talk about comparing this year to 1993 when the market topped in July, broke into September and then spent the next three months rallying. In that year planted acres started at 76.5 million and finished at 73.3 million. Harvested acres started at 69.3 million and finished at 63.0 million. The yield started at 122.7 bpa and finished at 100.7 bpa.

Most interior cash markets are under the gun from the USDA numbers. The thought is that anyone sitting on their old crop corn will now be compelled to let it go. With that said spreads are failing rapidly. Sept loses 3 cents to Dec, Dec loses 3 cents to March and March loses 3 cents to May. The most dramatic losses are 2019-20 crop year losing to the 2020-21 crop year.

On May 13th corn prices registered a key reversal and gapped higher the next day. That gap was filled today and prices closed below the gap. Needless to see the price action is not yet offering much that the remaining bulls can hang their hats on. For what it is worth; the attempt to correct higher before the report followed by its failure measures to $3.70 (Dec).

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/14

Sept Corn: $3.60 ($3.52) - $3.76

Dec Corn: $3.71 ($3.64) $3.85

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS REPORT OR THE MARKETS?

Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

Learn more about International Futures Group at www.ifgfutures.com



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About the author


Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.

 

 

Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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