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Softs Report 08/12/19


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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower for the week and weekly charts show that futures made new lows for the move. The weather has been considered good for Cotton production in the US. It has been warm but there have been showers to support good development. The main exception has been in the Texas Panhandle where it has been hot and dry. Conditions in the Delta and Southeast have been strong and have improved over the last few weeks. Crop development remains on about an average pace and bolls should start to form soon. Demand remains a big problem for Cotton. World demand has been less this year as China has not been buying. World prices have been lower as a result. The situation is bad enough that Indian spinners have been cutting back on operations. USDA will note less demand for US Cotton as well, primarily due to the trade disputes the US government has started against China and other major world importers. US production prospects have improved after a rough start to the season and the trade expects roughly unchanged production estimates from USDA later today.
Overnight News: The Delta should see scattered showers each day and the Southeast could get mostly dry conditions until scattered showers appear this weekend. It should turn drier next week. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 53.87 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 24,989 bales, from 26,229 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5820, 5750, and 5720 December, with resistance of 6010, 6170, and 6290 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 281,148
: Positions :
: 33,203 85,664 69,639 85,718 87,190 77,793 22,696 266,353 265,190: 14,795 15,959
: Changes from: July 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: 22,429) :
: -1,425 3,826 12,268 9,490 3,090 1,980 1,907 22,312 21,092: 117 1,337
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 30.5 24.8 30.5 31.0 27.7 8.1 94.7 94.3: 5.3 5.7
: Total Traders: 317 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 120 92 58 56 48 23 233 242:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower last week and could move lower again this week. The weather in Florida remained tranquil as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have greatly reduced irrigation needs. There are no hurricanes likely to hit the state this week, but the tropics are getting more active. A couple of waves have formed that could bring some tropical rains but no harmful weather. Futures appear poised to move back to or below 90.00 seen earlier in the year. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. The state has seen only an increase in showers and storms that have been beneficial for crops. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. USDA kept its production estimates above 70 million boxes in the production reports. Inventories in Florida are still 15% above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers starting this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 104.00, 106.00, and 107.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 6, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,973 :
: Positions :
: 13,600 8,776 1,169 0 70 604 7,866 234 1,245 1,045 3,614 :
: Changes from: July 30, 2019 :
: 245 -530 -117 0 0 2 355 114 136 -16 -144 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.7 36.6 4.9 0.0 0.3 2.5 32.8 1.0 5.2 4.4 15.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 80 :
: 24 12 5 0 . . 22 . 19 5 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets on ideas that the export pace from Brazil remains strong and as roaster buying remains generally hard to find. The new harvest is now past 8-0% complete and is starting to become available so the country should be able to keep up a strong export pace for at least the next few months. The Brazil harvest is moving along and producers are trying to store the crop due to the current low prices. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well, but showers are reported in the Central Highlands now and ideas are that conditions and production potential have improved. Central America has Coffee on offer, but bid prices from buyers have been very low.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.362 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered and mostly light showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 93.00, and 91.00 September, and resistance is at 99.00, 100.00 and 102.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1290 and 1240 September. Support is at 1280, 1250, and 1220 September, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1380 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 356,788
: Positions :
: 34,667 71,250 95,244 128,650 142,609 77,660 35,441 336,222 344,544: 20,566 12,244
: Changes from: July 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: 13,059) :
: 1,842 5,855 10,061 -1,691 -6,991 4,029 4,723 14,241 13,648: -1,182 -589
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 20.0 26.7 36.1 40.0 21.8 9.9 94.2 96.6: 5.8 3.4
: Total Traders: 473 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 153 111 144 135 119 46 25 408 340:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/06/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
162,450 95,954 67,485 21,723 10,075 2,120
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.1% 41.5% 13.4% 6.2% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
164 58 47 17 7 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,297 49,111 11,270 4,460 795 16,709
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.3% 30.2% 6.9% 2.7% 0.5% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
10 38 12 18 8 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,917 4,885
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.0% 3.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower for the week in both markets. Support came from ABIOVE who reported a slower crush of Sugarcane in its latest report a couple of weeks ago and still strong processing of the cane into Ethanol. The recent freeze may have hurt some of the cane. World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential. Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported. India is reporting below normal monsoon rains, but rains have been much better lately. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. Processing of Sugarcane in Brazil is slower and the pace of the crush is behind last year. Mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. ICE said that 137 deliveries of Sugar 16 were posted.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1150, and 1130 October, and resistance is at 1200, 1220, and 1230 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 315.00, 312.00, and 310.00 October, and resistance is at 322.00, 328.00, and 331.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,120,379
: Positions :
: 111,564 271,971 250,156 388,699 452,850 287,361 73,776 1,037,779 1,048,753: 82,600 71,626
: Changes from: July 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: 34,154) :
: -5,422 7,875 23,967 15,675 5,967 3,503 -2,155 37,724 35,655: -3,570 -1,501
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 24.3 22.3 34.7 40.4 25.6 6.6 92.6 93.6: 7.4 6.4
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 73 93 80 76 33 17 227 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/06/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
107,886 59,002 31,088 9,494 6,161 2,116
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.7% 28.8% 8.8% 5.7% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 55 41 11 7 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,066 52,212 7,495 4,557 368 5,157
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.0% 48.4% 6.9% 4.2% 0.3% 4.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 30 13 11 5 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,999 3,290
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 3.0%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower. Some of the selling in New York was currency related as the US Dollar has held very strong. The uneven weather in West Africa is still a feature. The weather in Ivory Coast has been dryer than normal for the last couple of weeks and there is some talk that production of the next main crop could be hurt. Some showers are returning to West Africa now to help relieve stress on trees. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest will start in the Fall. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in northwestern parts of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.196 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2190, 2150, and 2120 September, with resistance at 2230, 2260, and 2290 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1720, 1700, and 1660 September, with resistance at 1780, 1800, and 1820 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 06, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 285,107
: Positions :
: 37,873 36,147 56,015 121,219 162,408 56,069 21,169 271,176 275,739: 13,932 9,369
: Changes from: July 30, 2019 (Change in open interest: -27,030) :
: -13,572 3,557 -10,294 3,025 -18,234 -5,137 -1,780 -25,978 -26,752: -1,053 -279
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 12.7 19.6 42.5 57.0 19.7 7.4 95.1 96.7: 4.9 3.3
: Total Traders: 228 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 63 84 43 41 33 16 196 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/06/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
370,053 201,024 250,699 21,867 33,340 25,010
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.3% 67.7% 5.9% 9.0% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
151 51 43 14 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
60,198 4,432 28,612 3,496 695 25,682
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.3% 1.2% 7.7% 0.9% 0.2% 6.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
35 10 12 15 8 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,164 1,582
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.4%



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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