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Where Are Coffee Prices Going ?

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Coffee Futures---Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 106.65 while currently trading at 108.85 up over 200 points as prices are stuck in a 2 week consolidation.

Coffee prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is higher as fundamentally speaking the International Coffee Organization on July 3rd cut its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate by -8.8% to 3.11 mln bags from a prior view of 3.41 mln bags. Also current coffee supplies have tightened after the Green Coffee Association on Monday reported that U.S. June green coffee inventories fell -0.4% y/y to 6.82 mln bags. On the negative side harvest is about 66% complete as dry weather conditions are allowing the fieldwork to be brisk as harvest should be wrapped up around the 1st of September.

At the present time I'm sitting on the sidelines as I keep waiting for the 103 level to be touched so be patient as I still think coffee is in a bottoming out pattern as I will not go short.

At the present time I do not have any soft commodity recommendations as I was stopped out of my sugar trade earlier this week as all of the excitement recently has been in the precious metals which are experiencing strong trends.




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About the author

Michael is the sole owner of SEERYFUTURES.COM which is a commodity futures and options consulting, advisory, and educational firm.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg News, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He also writes market commentary for several commodity websites and is interviewed for commodity comments by the Wall Street Journal. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Michael started his career in 1990 at the Chicago Board of Trade as a runner. He soon worked his way up to becoming a Series 3 broker. He works with seasoned traders as well as novice beginners educating them on trading the futures markets as well as using simple and complex option strategies. Michael covers all markets including grains, metals, energies, and all other futures markets that are traded.
To Michael the biggest lesson any trader needs to learn is risk management. Michael believes this is the most important factor in trading. He also works with traders to help them determine the proper risk for their trading style. Michael has spent a lot of time educating his clients to help them understand trading strategies and trading techniques while enjoying spending quality time with customers going over the markets or just talking general trading philosophies.

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