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Trading the Noise - Blue Line Morning Express


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Morning Express

As you know, our report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:30 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 4 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold. Contact our trade desk, we cover more - Treasuries, Nat Gas, Copper etc -312-278-0500 or info@bluelinefutures.com

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E-mini S&P (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2997.50, up 12.50

Fundamentals:The Federal Reserve is in the drivers seat and yesterdays rip higher was the latest example. NY Fed President Williams said the central bank should act quickly and preemptively to fight economic slowdowns. U.S benchmarks were meagerly off session lows and arguably attempting to bottom but his comments boosted the S&P from 2984 to a high of 3001.50 in an hour. Price action extended to a high of 3005.50 after settlement and to 3009.50 shortly after the reopen; a rally of nearly 1%. During this move, the probability for the Fed to cut 50-basis points on July 31st soared to 70%; the Federal Reserve is in the drivers seat. With the market at 3009.50, the NY Fed released a statement saying the speech was academic in nature and based on research, not about a potential policy move. The probability of a 50-basis point Fed cut have fallen to 41% by the onset of U.S hours. However, the momentum shift in price action is undeniable.

On todays economic calendar, we look to fresh July Michigan Consumer data at 9:00 am CT. Just as crucial will be comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard, a voting member this year. In fact, this dove was the only member to dissent at the June meeting, preferring to cut rates by 25 basis points.

Technicals:We have kept a minor Bullish Bias through this healthy correction because the market is in an undeniable uptrend. Although the S&P did bleed through and struggle to regain major three-star support at 2981.50-2986.25 ahead of NY Fed President Williams comments, it never settled through there and buyers did remain steadfastly in front of major three-star support at 2963-2969.25. In an arguably more constructive path, the NQ never took out major three-star support at 7821-7851.75. In fact, neither contract took out the overnight lows heading into Thursdays session. We are watching the NQ most closely to be a leader here and yesterday it traded and closed out above major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Crude Oil (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 55.42, down 1.50

Fundamentals:Crude is sharply off the overnight high, a spike that occurred after President Trump announced a U.S warship shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz. Remember, Iran has threatened to shut down this high-volume passageway despite the risks it poses to their own economy. Price action has pared those gains on comments from the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister denying such reports. Regardless, tensions in the region remain high heading into the weekend. Price action overall is weak coming out of last weekends tropical storm scare and a less enthusiastic EIA report and the technical damage this week cannot go unnoticed.

Technicals:Price action fell to a low of 54.85 and hit our major three-star support at 54.92-55.10 before working higher. The overnight rally quickly stalled as it approached what was our pivot level yesterday at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Gold (August)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1428.1, up 4.8

Fundamentals:Golds resilience yesterday morning in the face of a blowout Philly Fed Manufacturing report is truly a feat; this is the sort of stuff that only happens in a bull market. A strong tape into the afternoon got rocket boosters from comments by NY Fed President Williams who said the Fed should act quickly and preemptively to battle a slowdown. Gold traded to a high of 1454.4 overnight before the NY Fed clarified his comments as academic research and not a policy signal. The odds for the Fed to cut 50 basis points later this month rose to a high of 70% and have now pared back to 40%. Fresh July Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT and this is the only thing standing in the way of Gold and the dovish St. Louis Fed President Bullard who speaks at 10:05 am CT.

Technicals:As beautiful of a breakout yesterdays price action was, it did not occur during Golds intraday session which also means Gold has yet to close out above major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results


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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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