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Grains Report 07/18/19


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DJ Analysts’ Estimates for July USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed July 1 101.8 100.9- 103.2
Placed in June 97.7 93.2- 105.7
Marketed in June 96.9 95.8- 98.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
July 1 in June in June
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.6 95.8 96.8
Allendale Inc. 100.9 93.2 98.3
HedgersEdge 102.5 102.4 97.0
Linn Group 101.8 97.6 97.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.3 95.1 97.2
NFC Markets 103.2 105.7 96.2
Texas A&M Extenstion 102.1 98.1 95.8
U.S. Commodities 101.7 97.2 97.0

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 18
For the week ended Jul 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 347.3 0.0 7855.9 6428.5 4944.9 0.0
hrw 127.5 0.0 3152.2 1562.8 1642.9 0.0
srw 88.6 0.0 1114.3 826.7 837.3 0.0
hrs 72.3 0.0 1958.3 2098.0 1297.1 0.0
white 38.9 0.0 1398.4 1769.6 994.3 0.0
durum 20.1 0.0 232.6 171.4 173.2 0.0
corn 200.0 133.0 49621.0 58736.4 4913.0 3359.8
soybeans 127.9 198.4 48660.1 57644.7 9278.8 2803.8
soy meal 65.3 149.5 11383.6 11676.5 2175.3 848.3
soy oil 12.2 1.5 825.7 1006.4 145.7 5.8
upland cotton 54.0 218.9 15370.1 16318.7 3093.4 4312.0
Pima cotton -5.3 0.5 723.6 639.9 95.5 61.6
sorghum 28.1 0.0 1649.2 5044.6 201.5 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 51.8 48.9 46.3 0.0
rice 9.2 1.4 3445.7 2995.3 533.3 68.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on follow through speculative selling, HRW was the weakest market, but all markets are still basically in a trading range. It seemed to be a low volume session after an early recovery attempt failed. The selling came from funds and on reports that US prices are too high to attract world buyers. Weak export sales were expected today in the weekly USDA reports. The harvest pace for Winter Wheat is active at this time and the condition ratings for Spring Wheat improved. Private sources in eastern Europe and Russia are reporting lower harvested yields again, so world prices could catch up to those from the US. World buyers need to show up and buy. Egypt did buy ne cargo from Russia yesterday. There have not been many tender announcements lately and the market needs some business. Most buyers will continue to look to Europe and Russia to buy as those prices are still lower. The US Winter Wheat harvest has produced strong yields, so the overall price structure for US Wheat can stay weak until the demand for US Wheat starts to improve.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off tomorrow, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers off and on through this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 501, 498, and 494 September, with resistance at 514, 517, and 519 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 440, 431, and 425 September, with resistance at 452, 458, and 463 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 530 and 522 September. Support is at 524, 521, and 515 September, and resistance is at 538, 543, and 547 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in slow trading. Weather is still important to watch, but damage from the tropical storms appears minimal. The harvest will be underway in Texas near the end of this month, but other areas will begin later as crops got planted later than normal due to the extreme rains seen at planting time. There are ideas of less production, but how much less is unknown as USDA has not given any indication of prevent plant acreage yet.. The Indian monsoon showed above normal rains for central and western parts of the country, but Rice areas in the south of the country continued to get below normal rains. Indian Rice production might be stressed now and production might be less this year due to the weaker monsoon rains.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms in all areas today and tomorrow, than drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1169, 1153, and 1108 September. Support is at 1172, 1166, and 1154 September, with resistance at 1185, 1196, and 1202 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher after trading both sides of unchanged. The market is still worried about the weather. It is still very hot in most of the Midwest, but there have been showers around. Western Illinois and Missouri got some showers and storms yesterday. Most areas south and east of Chicago saw at least some light precipitation as some showers from the tropical system in the Delta earlier in the week made it to the Midwest. Overall, the west should stay hot and dry this week, but all areas could see cooler temperatures next week. There is still a good chance for Corn to trade above $5.00 per bushel given the stressful weather, but to trade much above that level will require improved demand of for crop conditions to get worse. The crop is very late this year as much of the Corn was planted one to two months behind normal dates. It is mostly very short and at least some of it might not be mature before normal first freeze dates. The crop was planted into mostly very wet soils and the soils have compacted due to the rain and the equipment used to plant and fertilize the crop. The root structure is not as strong as it might normally be and there have been reports of stress from leaves rolling in parts of Illinois and Indiana. Reproduction will start soon, so rain and cooler temperatures will be welcomed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 420, 400, and 394 September. Support is at 427, 425, and 421 September, and resistance is at 441, 445, and 447 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 275, 272, and 270 September, and resistance is at 283, 285, and 288 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on ideas of improving Midwest weather. Western Illinois and Missouri got some showers and storms yesterday. Most areas south and east of Chicago saw at least some light precipitation as some showers from the tropical system in the Delta earlier in the week made it to the Midwest. Overall, the west should stay hot and dry this week, but all areas could see cooler temperatures next week. Soybeans were mostly planted very late and are very small. Hot and dry weather now will inhibit growth potential as the crops are not all that well established. It is now a weather market and the forecasts for this month and into August will be key for longer term price direction. USDA showed that South America will have plenty of Soybeans to offer and this fact will inhibit the upside potential for prices of Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 865 and 836 August. Support is at 872, 865, and 863 August, and resistance is at 900, 918, and 923 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 300.00 August, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 317.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2760, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2960 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower with Chicago but held a support area again and closed with only moderate losses. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. The trading volumes were light yesterday with not much speculative activity seen. Palm Oil was a little lower in consolidation trading and in sympathy with the outside markets. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. GAPKI showed that Indonesian stocks are up 10% for May. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 442.00, 437.00, and 434.00 November, with resistance at 448.00, 452.00, and 453.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 October, with resistance at 1990, 2010, and 2030 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers possible late in the week, especially south and east of Chicago, then turning drier again this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal through Saturday, then below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +54 Sep +162 Sep +44 Sep +53 Aug +12 Aug N/A
August +50 Sep +50 Sep +53 Aug
September +53 Sep +70 Sep +33 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 17
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 435.30 dn 1.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 456.10 dn 1.20
Basis: Vancouver 464.10 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 492.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 480.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 335.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,900 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 132 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1115)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 113,258 lots, or 3.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,376 3,398 3,368 3,371 3,372 3,379 7 102,320 168,730
Nov-19 3,443 3,457 3,433 3,433 3,437 3,448 11 12 354
Jan-20 3,402 3,419 3,398 3,404 3,397 3,406 9 10,128 56,162
Mar-20 – – – 3,413 3,413 3,413 0 0 30
May-20 3,518 3,526 3,510 3,514 3,511 3,517 6 788 26,786
Jul-20 3,485 3,485 3,485 3,485 3,516 3,485 -31 10 10
Corn
Turnover: 590,696 lots, or 11.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,927 1,935 1,924 1,934 1,925 1,930 5 399,936 823,394
Nov-19 1,952 1,959 1,951 1,959 1,952 1,955 3 34,886 350,902
Jan-20 1,984 1,991 1,983 1,990 1,985 1,987 2 140,436 622,892
Mar-20 2,004 2,008 2,004 2,008 2,003 2,006 3 54 2,196
May-20 2,045 2,051 2,044 2,050 2,045 2,048 3 14,586 115,478
Jul-20 2,084 2,084 2,066 2,070 2,067 2,077 10 798 546
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,677,388 lots, or 76.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,879 2,884 2,855 2,884 2,848 2,876 28 54 1,018
Sep-19 2,840 2,865 2,824 2,832 2,822 2,844 22 2,063,080 1,496,594
Nov-19 2,859 2,880 2,842 2,846 2,845 2,862 17 82,762 214,966
Dec-19 2,878 2,890 2,838 2,838 2,858 2,856 -2 336 1,186
Jan-20 2,873 2,887 2,854 2,860 2,868 2,869 1 463,560 743,864
Mar-20 – – – 2,804 2,804 2,804 0 0 718
May-20 2,745 2,753 2,731 2,736 2,743 2,742 -1 67,536 235,088
Jul-20 2,746 2,746 2,728 2,728 2,741 2,737 -4 60 122
Palm Oil
Turnover: 390,456 lots, or 16.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 4,338 4,338 4,238 4,238 4,254 4,288 34 4 0
Sep-19 4,214 4,222 4,174 4,196 4,198 4,196 -2 297,758 588,586
Oct-19 4,448 4,448 4,286 4,288 4,304 4,340 36 12 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,344 4,308 4,344 36 0 16
Dec-19 – – – 4,478 4,478 4,478 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,430 4,440 4,402 4,416 4,416 4,418 2 80,058 266,814
Feb-20 – – – 4,472 4,472 4,472 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,628 4,628 4,628 0 0 2
May-20 4,664 4,666 4,622 4,634 4,642 4,640 -2 12,624 38,386
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 455,440 lots, or 24.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,406 5,406 5,406 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,432 5,444 5,384 5,420 5,422 5,412 -10 332,058 657,724
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 5,570 5,570 5,492 5,492 5,524 5,530 6 4 28
Jan-20 5,590 5,604 5,542 5,576 5,586 5,570 -16 116,274 329,272
Mar-20 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 12
May-20 5,716 5,716 5,648 5,676 5,702 5,670 -32 7,104 49,274
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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