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Prevent Plant Numbers in Question

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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for July 18, 2019.

Grain markets are lower as traders try to make sense of the current acreage thoughts swirling the market. With rumors of big prevent plant numbers across the country, traders want to see USDA resurvey data due August 12th.

Weather forecasts continue to move markets, and we're set to get the latest from Drew Lerner or World Weather, Inc. during our annual Ag Leaders Summer Conference next week. It all begins Tuesday at 2:00 PM CDT . Register online, or call Zach at 800-262-7538 for best pricing.

Weekly export sales will be released this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Analysts expect to see corn sales of 350,000 to 800,000 tonnes, soybeans 100,000 to 700,000, wheat 200,000 to 400,000, soymeal 50,000 to 300,000, and soyoil 5,000 to 50,000.

Rich Nelson noted, "In addition to the NASS acreage resurvey the August 12 production numbers incorporate the Farm Service Agencys farm program acreage numbers (we often incorrectly refer to this as crop insurance data). This farm program data is generally quite accurate. We have had monthly data since 2011. During that time the August Preventive Plant estimate ranged from 94% to 99% of the years total. Even considering the fact some may say this years August numbers might be 90% of the total, due to the delayed planting, the August PP data should be quite strong."

Ethanol production numbers were reported at 0.2% over last year for this same week. Factoring in increased plant efficiency, however, we are not on pace to hit USDA's ethanol estimate for the year.

Funds were estimated sellers again yesterday, selling 6,000 corn contracts, 5,000 soybeans, 3,000 wheat, 2,000 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil.

Brazil is expected to released $16.8 billion in "workers guarantee and contribution funds" in the near future in an attempt to stimulate the economy according to Economy Minister Paulo Guedes.

The United States and Japan are working on a trade deal involving agriculture and autos that could be agreed by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe when they meet in New York in September, three industry sources familiar with the discussions said on Tuesday. (Reuters)

October and December Lean Hog futures contracts pushed to new highs for their recent uptrend. August contract didn't see new highs but it did see a new highest close of the uptrend. The market is appears to be pricing in ideas that the 4th quarter will be good for hogs.

Cash cattle traded yesterday in Kansas at $111 in the country. All three of the lots on the Fed Cattle Exchange traded today at $111 as well. This is seen as a bit disappointing considering last week's trade averaged $111 for the 35% - 65% choice group. Of note, this was under the $113 average price for the All Grades cattle last week.

Cattle on Feed and the Cattle Inventory reports will be released tomorrow at 2:00 PM CDT by USDA. We estimate Cattle on Feed as of July 1 at at 100.9% of last year, Placements at 93.2%, and Marketings at 98.3%. For Cattle Inventory, we estimate All Cattle at 99.9% of last year.

Cold Storage is due Monday at 2:00 PM. We estimate end of June pork stocks at 594.548 million pounds. Beef stocks are estimated at 388.791.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.36 and select down 0.82. The CME feeder index is 141.01. Pork cut-out values were up .68.

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About the author

Allendale Inc. was established in 1984 in a country grain elevator located in Crystal Lake, Illinois. The first-hand experience with agricultural and financial markets has worked with Allendale’s combined foresight, ingenuity and expertise to make it the successful firm that it is today. Allendale’s goal is to provide its customers the expertise and service they need to grow their agricultural businesses. Allendale’s staff is called on to provide their commentary for TV, radio and newswires on a daily basis.

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