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Wheat - Just My Opinion

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Sept Chgo Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($5.05.5), Dec 2 cents lower ($5.17.25) & March 1.75 cents lower ($5.29.75)

Sept KC Wheat closed 4.5 cents lower ($4.41.75), Dec 4 cents lower ($4.62.25) & March 4.25 cents lower ($4.81.75)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 2.5 cents lower ($5.27.75), Dec 2.75 cents lower ($5.40.75) & March 2.5 cents lower ($5.55.5)

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat overnight Egypt buys 60.0 K T. Russian wheat -

Weekly Wheat Export Sales old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected new crop vs. none expected

A total of 765 K T. of wheat was offered to Egypt and not a pound of it was US origin. That pretty much tells it all as to todays trade. Harvest is happening around the World (Northern Hemisphere) and it looks like production data from our export competitors will be larger vs. last year despite some cuts from previous ideas. Without export demand the best the US wheat market can do is be a follower of other feed grains. Yes, Ive heard of improved wheat feeding in the southwest but rarely is a market made from domestic demand unless were running with a great shortfall which we are not.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat runs unchanged vs. Tuesdays postings. If I had to suggest a trend its steady to a shade easier for SRW and mostly steady for HRW. SRW basis along the Ohio River has been in an easing mode for the past few days. HRW at the Gulf reads steady with a very slight friendly bias while the SRW continues to be a non-event at the Gulf. Chgo spreads within the current crop year ran fractionally mixed on the day while gaining slightly on the 2020/21 crop year. Not much happens with the KC spreads.

Last weeks low in Sept Chgo wheat was $4.98; take that out and it suggests something closer to $4.90. Failure at $4.90 suggests $4.80. The measurement from last weeks low to Mondays high is $4.70 if $4.98 is taken out (with conviction) on a closing basis. Just a word of caution wheat futures are notorious for head fakes. Be careful when considering chasing an inter-day extreme.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/18

Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.98 (?) - $5.15

Sept KC Wheat: $4.35 ($4.30) - $4.52

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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