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Weather in Focus as Acreage Questions Remain


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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for July 17, 2019.

Grain markets are lower with corn down 3, soybeans down 1, and wheat down 5 as traders wait for the next catalyst to move the markets. Weather maps are being watched closely to help determine the fate of the US crop, while anticipation continues to build for updated acreage data from the USDA (which is still almost a month away).

Weather forecasts continue to move markets, and we're set to get the latest from Drew Lerner or World Weather, Inc. during our annual Ag Leaders Summer Conference next week. It all begins Tuesday at 2:00 PM CDT . Register online, or call Zach at 800-262-7538 for best pricing.

Russia's 2035 strategy calls for agricultural investments of 4.4 trillion roubles ($70 billion) into the country's ag infrastructure and logistics according to the Agriculture Ministry. The goal of the investment is to increase Russia's grain crop to as much as 150.3 million tonnes. The plan is being studied by the government.

FCSTONE estimates Brazil's second-crop corn harvest at 71.7 million tonnes, an increase from their June estimate of 70.2 million. Total corn harvest was increased to 99.7 million tonnes, and corn exports were increased to 35 million tonnes.

Germany's Association of Farm Co-Op's estimates the country's wheat harvest at 23.85 million tonnes, a slight drop from their previous 24.70 million tonne estimate. The drop comes after a heatwave hit Germany in June, but it remains well above last year's crop.

Russia's grain union expects their grain crop in 2019 to be 128 million tonnes. Of that, they see the wheat crop to at 78 million tonnes.

President Trump, at a Cabinet meeting yesterday, said the US and China still have a long way to reach a trade deal, and that he could impose tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of goods if needed. For there part, China said that Trump's statement that Beijing needs a trade deal with the United States because its economy is slowing, is totally misleading and that both sides want an agreement.

Managed money funds were estimated sellers across the board yesterday selling 18,000 corn contracts, 10,500 soybeans, 1,000 wheat, 3,000 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil.

Cattle of Feed and the Cattle Inventory reports will be released Friday at 2:00 PM CDT by USDA. We estimate Cattle on Feed as of July 1 at at 100.9% of last year, Placements at 93.2%, and Marketings at 98.3%. For Cattle Inventory, we estimate All Cattle at 99.9% of last year.

Cold Storage is due Monday at 2:00 PM. We estimate end of June pork stocks at 594.548 million pounds. Beef stocks are estimated at 388.791.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.34 and select down 0.05. The CME feeder index is 141.09. Pork cut-out values were up 2.90.


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Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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