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Surviving the Heat


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The National Weather Service is calling for a little cooler and drier than normal for the Heartland in its recent 6 to 10 day projection. As we enter corn pollination for a large portion of the crop we can use a little more rain as the crop might be under severe stress with the extremely high temperatures expected the next few days. The trade is stillvery anxious over total acreage and no one knows, including the USDA, final yield. We welcome an extended growing season this year but Mother Nature and the USDA keeps us on our toes with surprises.

Spreads might continue languishing as the world is blessed with a surplus South American corn and bean production and the domestic market isincorporating hard red wheat intothe feed ration. The August 12 acreage, yield and supply/demand projections are looming large on the horizon.

Look tothe skies for direction today. Traders may believe that we're in a stalemate as we enter the dog days of summer. End users might be prudent and take more coverage on dips of a dime while producers comfortable with stands might be looking to sell a decent pop in corn in the next week. Monday's condition report might show the heat stress we've experienced this past week but we should know by now that trade expectations and government perceptions vary.



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About the author


Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at sbruce@walshtrading.com.
 
 
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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