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Grain Markets Retreat on Profit Taking, Wetter Forecasts


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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for July 16, 2019.

Grain markets saw pressure overnight on profit-taking and forecasts for beneficial rains, after reaching a five-year high during the Sunday's overnight session. Remnants of hurricane Barry are expected to bring welcome moisture to crops in the Mississippi River Delta and Eastern Corn Belt, according to forecasters. "Rain associated with Tropical Depression Barry is edging into southern parts of Illinois and Missouri," the USDA said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters he expects to have another telephone call with Chinese officials this week as part of resumed discussions about a trade agreement. "To the extent that we make significant progress, I think there's a good chance we'll go there later", Mnuchin said.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress report showed corn condition ratings at 58% GTE (56% GTE expected, 57% last week, 71.4% 5-year average). Soybean condition ratings at 54% GTE (53% GTE expected, 53% last week, 67.2% 5-year average). Hard red Spring wheat condition rating at 76% GTE (78% GTE expected, 78% last week). Winter wheat harvesting at 57% complete (62% expected, 47% last week, 72% last year).

Managed money funds were estimated sellers of 26,000 corn contracts, 7,000 soybeans, 1,000 wheat, 3,000 soymeal and buyers of 500 soyoil contracts in yesterdays trade.

NOPA Soybean crush report showed June crush at 148.8 million bushels (154.4 million bushels expected, 154.8 million bushels last month, 159.2 million bushels last year). Oil stocks at 1.536 billion lbs. (1.527 billion lbs. expected, 1.581 billion lbs. last month, 1.766 billion lbs. last year).

Argentine farmers are expected to harvest 21.5 million tonnes of wheat in the 2019/20 season, the Rosario Grains Exchange said in a report on Monday. The 2019/2020 wheat planting area estimate was 6.87 million hectares, the highest sowing level in 18 years, the exchange said. The planting area fell short of 7 million hectares due to excess moisture from heavy rains, the difficulty of changing the seed cycle and a new wave of enthusiasm for corn, the exchange said. (Reuters)

Ukrainian ProAgro agriculture consultancy revised up its 2019 grain harvest forecast for Ukraine to 72.55 million tonnes (71.3 million tonnes last report) due to a higher corn harvest. The consultancy said Ukraine was likely to harvest 34.52 million tonnes of corn this year, with an average yield of 7.25 tonnes per hectare, it said.

U.S. federal judge reduced damages awarded from Bayer AG owed to a man who blamed his cancer on the glyphosate-based weed killer Roundup to $25.27 million (from $80 million), saying the punitive damages component was too high.

Live Cattle showlist for this week was counted 7,800 head over last week's offering.

China's agriculture ministry said it will carry out checks on local veterinary authorities in 10 provinces as it tries to slow the ongoing spread of the deadly African swine fever virus. "This is what is needed. At a national level and even provincial level the policies were okay, but there were shortcomings in the way they were translated. And that's something that needs to be worked out to stop this disease," said Dirk Pfeiffer, a professor of veterinary epidemiology at the City University of Hong Kong.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 0.47 and select down 0.39. The CME feeder index is 140.46. Pork cut-out values were up 1.25.


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About the author


Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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