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Are bond futures ready to sink or take off?


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US Treasury Bond futures [ZB & ZN] and the Volatility Futures [VX], have been closely coupled with the movement in the S&P futures for years. With the stock market on a tear in recent days resulting from Chairman Powell's testimony earlier this week and heading into the actual FOMC announcement at the end of the month, what should you expect out of US Treasury futures? We provide a technical analysis for traders in this study while always believing in the popular adage, "when in doubt, zoom out".

In our analysis initially of the 30-Year T-Bond futures, we zoomed out using the 180-day 4-hour chart and find two bottoms in March & April'19 of the June expiration futures. This promts a fib measurement that tells us that the 30-Year Treasury futures remains bullish above 150'07. Into the September contract roll, we have held 151'17 and have not looked back so that still remains a good entry to the long side with a stop at 150'07.

Here is the supporting chart

zb-7-12-19



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About the author


Murali Sarma, Vice President of Business Integrations Inc., is an internationally known commodities analyst, author, trader and business consultant who has demystified commodity trading and introduced numerous futures trading strategies and indicators to traders - professional, non-professional and the novice trader - throughout the world. Murali began his trading career in the pre-dot-com bubble in 1998, electing to seek instruments to trade which had lesser volatility and offered more predictable analysis. From about 1999 to 2002, Murali traded out of the UK and moving to the US after that and working mostly independently with individual traders while learning from some of the best analysts and traders. While not being formally certified as a commodities trader, Murali preferred to hone in on his analysis and trading skills versus adding academically to his credentials. Murali believes that is isn’t about being right or wrong on your calls, it is about making money!

Murali has helped several traders become successful over the last 10+ years of active futures trading and has a strong following of traders who like to seek out opportunities in the futures markets on a daily basis versus following the old “buy & hold” investing adage. While not being opposed to switching hats and becoming an “investor” every so often with swing trades in the equities markets, Murali prefers to trade what he can see on charts using multiple timeframes and handcrafted indicators suited for all types of markets. Murali excels in trading sideways and choppy markets with a scalping style of being in-out of intraday markets when there is no defined trend, and on most other days prefers trading to his own computed target levels during the intraday timeframe, while following the trend.

In recent months, Murali has started a Twitter based alert service for intraday futures traders who like to trade commodities and index futures, and elected to blog post his daily analysis in commodities like WTI Crude & Gold and index future instruments like YM, NQ, ES & RTY. You may contact him via his email at info@tradeguidance.com

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