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It's out of the way and we might be looking at the weather for a couple of weeks as the August 12 acreage tweak and first surveyed yield estimate for corn and beans looms large on the horizon.

Take the Supply/Demand figures and believe them or not! Wheat production was not a surprise yet feed usage only increased 10 million bushels from the June estimate. Winter wheat harvest might be winding out by mid next week and it might get tougher to originate but, the final few percentages typically gets sold which may satisfy the milling communities needs/grind through the Fall . Quality issues are present in the soft red crop yet, Mother Nature has helped us hold steady the past ten days with drier and warmer conditions in the East. Concerns over Europe and Australia might allow for Kansas City to gain a little bit on Chicago the next few weeks yet, flat price rallies might be curtailed if corn and beans don't lead the way higher on weather concerns.

July contracts expire tomorrow and the strength in wheat and corn basis levels in the East has given July some value. Yet, it might be easier to import Argentine corn than to take delivery on the Illinois River and move it via barge/rail to the Eastern interior. There's always a countdown for corn as we approach mid September harvest in the Mid South. Given the world situation it might be difficult to get too friendly on the CU/CZ spread. Wheat spreads might soften in Chicago, as well as the final 20% of the harvest typically is the straw which breaks the camel's back.

There is still a lot of argument over the validity of the Supply/Demand as new crop production is questionable. We're in the middle of the crop year and the weather has turned more beneficial for development. Bull markets need fresh bull news every bull day. Keep an eye on the weather maps for direction tomorrow!

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce

Walsh Trading
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Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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