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Grains Report 07/10/19


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DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019-20 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2019-20 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2018-19
All Wheat 1,905 1,700-1,995 1,903 1,884
Winter Wheat 1,278 1,231-1,314 1,274 1,184
Hard Red Winter 804 783-835 794 662
Soft Red Winter 254 240-262 258 286
White Winter 224 220-234 222 236
Other Spring 581 550-625 N/A 623
Durum 60 44-80 N/A 77
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
AgriVisor 1,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Allendale 1,867 1,269 783 262 224 553 44
DC Analysis 1,920 1,279 799 260 220 583 58
Doane 1,880 1,264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Farm Futures 1,936 1,231 793 256 234 N/A 58
Grain Cycles 1,885 1,265 785 260 220 N/A N/A
INTL FCStone 1,921 1,286 806 256 224 576 59
Northstar 1,995 1,290 820 245 225 625 80
Sid Love Consulting 1,923 1,295 818 255 222 N/A N/A
Price Futures 1,931 1,286 808 255 223 586 59
Prime Ag 1,950 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RMC 1,898 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1,944 1,314 835 252 227 575 55
Vantage RM 1,925 1,274 794 258 222 598 53
US Commodities 1,910 1,300 810 240 225 N/A N/A
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,891 1,266 794 254 222 550 75

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,511 12,566-13,880 13,680 14,420
Soybean Production 3,850 3,700-4,015 4,150 4,544
Corn Yield 164.9 162.0-167.0 166.0 176.4
Soybean Yield 48.4 47.0-50.0 49.5 51.6
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriVisor 13,880 166.0 3,900 49.5
Allendale 13,745 163.0 3,890 49.0
DC Analysis 13,636 166.5 3,710 48.0
Doane 13,163 162.5 3,700 47.4
Farm Futures 13,348 167.0 3,948 49.8
Grain Cycles 13,878 166.0 3,871 49.0
INTL FCStone 12,566 165.0 3,812 47.5
Northstar 13,675 167.0 3,802 47.0
Price Futures 13,625 163.0 3,945 50.0
Prime Ag 13,710 164.0 3,762 47.5
RMC 13,100 165.0 4,015 48.5
Sid Love Consulting 13,256 166.0 3,994 48.0
US Commodities 13,877 165.0 3,738 47.3
Vantage RM 13,349 162.0 3,865 48.8
Zaner Ag Hedge 13,861 166.0 3,803 48.0

DJ U.S. July Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,179 1,615-2,385 2,195
Soybeans 1,038 935-1,100 1,070
Wheat 1,076 1,055-1,102 1,102
2019-20
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,642 1,235-1,942 1,675
Soybeans 812 558-1,111 1,045
Wheat 1,028 925-1,092 1,072
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriVisor 2,250 1,100 1,070 1,850 950 975
Allendale 2,270 1,024 1,072 1,736 869 1,049
DC Analysis 2,270 1,038 N/A 1,681 588 925
Doane 2,220 1,025 1,072 1,410 650 1,010
Farm Futures 2,385 974 1,072 1,716 916 1,092
Grain Cycles 2,220 1,050 1,072 1,858 806 1,021
INTL FCStone 2,224 1,094 1,072 1,235 1,111 991
Sid Love Consulting 2,145 1,040 1,072 1,451 854 1,060
Northstar 2,070 1,000 1,102 1,545 720 1,000
Price Futures 2,145 1,005 1,072 1,570 815 1,070
Prime-Ag 2,245 1,040 1,072 1,655 627 1,074
RMC 1,615 935 1,055 1,655 985 1,055
RJ O’Brien 2,290 1,085 N/A 1,742 876 1,079
US Commodities 2,270 1,090 1,082 1,942 558 1,030
Vantage RM 2,155 1,070 1,102 1,504 895 997
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,095 1,030 1072 1,726 773 1,020

DJ July World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA June
Corn 325.0 320.0-329.6 325.4
Soybeans 112.6 111.6-115.5 112.8
Wheat 276.1 273.0-278.0 276.6
2019-20
Average Range USDA June
Corn 290.2 282.4-294.5 290.5
Soybeans 110.7 103.0-124.1 112.7
Wheat 290.8 279.9-295.0 294.3
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriVisor 320.0 113.0 278.0 285.5 114.0 292.0
Allendale 326.4 111.6 275.2 292.6 110.2 293.7
Doane 325.0 113.0 276.0 283.5 108.0 292.0
Farm Futures 329.6 112.3 273.0 294.5 107.0 286.4
Grain Cycles 326.0 112.0 276.5 291.0 109.5 289.0
INTL FCStone 322.7 115.5 276.2 282.4 124.1 279.9
Northstar 325.0 112.8 276.0 294.0 109.0 294.0
Prime-Ag 326.0 112.0 276.0 290.0 104.0 295.0
RMC 325.0 111.8 276.3 289.9 112.5 293.9
US Commodities 325.0 112.8 277.0 294.5 103.0 293.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 323.8 112.0 276.6 294.2 115.9 289.7

DJ July Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 100.9 99.7-102.0 101.0
Soybeans 117.0 116.0-118.0 117.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriVisor 101.00 116.00
Allendale 101.00 117.00
DC Analysis 102.00 117.00
Doane 101.00 117.00
INTL FCStone 99.70 116.50
Northstar 101.00 117.00
Price Futures 101.00 117.00
Prime Ag 101.00 117.00
RMC 101.20 117.20
US Commodities 101.00 118.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 100.50 117.00
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 49.2 48.8-50.0 49.0
Soybeans 56.1 55.8-57.0 56.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriVisor 50.00 57.00
Allendale 49.00 56.00
DC Analysis 49.00 56.00
Doane 49.00 56.00
INTL FCStone 48.75 56.25
Northstar 49.00 56.00
Price Futures 49.00 56.00
Prime Ag 49.00 56.00
RMC 49.10 56.20
US Commodities 49.30 55.80

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 11, 2019 198 Jul 08, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 11, 2019 156 Jul 09, 2019
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 11, 2019 11 Jun 27, 2019
CORN July Jul. 11, 2019 177 Jul 08, 2019
SOYBEAN July Jul. 11, 2019 335 Jul 09, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower once again yesterday on ideas of good harvest progress and high yields. USDA confirmed that the Winter Wheat harvest was moving faster than previously and also showed improved Spring Wheat crop condition. Reports from the fields indicate that yields are high as Winter Wheat crops have had more than enough moisture this year. It is drier now and that is allowing for the increased harvest pace. There was no real news to support Wheat prices as Egypt bought from Ukraine and Romania and other sales have been posted by Europe in recent days. The US Dollar keeps moving higher and this hurts sales potential as well. Rains are improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. Drier weather in forecast for Canada. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is almost harvest time for Winter crops in these areas. Conditions are very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off and on all weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers later this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 499 September. Support is at 499, 494, and 491 September, with resistance at 514, 517, and 519 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 431, 425, and 418 September, with resistance at 444, 450, and 452 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 524, 521, and 515 September, and resistance is at 536, 543, and 546 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in moderate volume trading as traders anticipate changes made in the supply and demand reports later this week. The weather is improving in Rice country as it finally seems to be turning warmer and drier. Most crops are in flood, but many crops in Arkansas are not at that stage of development yet. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. June rains were less than average this year and even some cities are worried that they can run out of water unless the rains get significantly better. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1220 September. Support is at 1166, 1154, and 1141 September, with resistance at 1192, 1202, and 1212 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 10
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.25 8.22 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.75 8.80 0.00
Brokens 7.99 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on production concerns and as the stronger US Dollar created demand fears. USDA showed that crop condition was as expected, but that the crops remain very late. A trip over the weekend to east central Wisconsin showed that no Corn was above knee-high and that much of the crop was well under one foot tall. The color was good, but the dates are late and the crops might be destined for silage and not for cash grain sales. This is a large dairy area so the silage can be used, but the crops are still very late even for producing good silage. A trip to west-central Illinois also displayed very uneven growth and showed the spread of planting times due to the big rains during the Spring and early Summer. Similar reports are heard all over the Corn Belt. It will take a very late Fall to get the crops home with no additional losses as there is a long way to go. It is warmer now so the crops have a chance to progress, but rain will be needed frequently due to the poor root structure as the crop got planted in mostly very wet conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 429, 425, and 421 September, and resistance is at 442, 445, and 447 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 265 and 254 September. Support is at 270, 268, and 266 September, and resistance is at 278, 282, and 283 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mostly higher as the market started to prepare for the latest WASDE supply and demand updates later this week. Further support came when White House economic advisor Kudlow said that the US expected China to buy US agricultural products while the negotiations on a trade deal are underway. Traders reacted to news from the crop progress and condition reports that showed lower condition ratings. The market had expected a slight improvement. A quick trip to east central Wisconsin over the weekend showed that all Soybeans were very far behind normal progress. Many fields had just emerged and no fields showed plants much over six inches tall. These crops have a long way to go before there can be much of a harvest for Soybeans in this area this year. A trip by a colleague to western Illinois showed uneven crop progress and condition. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 856 August. Support is at 871, 865, and 863 August, and resistance is at 890, 893, and 903 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 310.00, 313.00, and 316.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2760, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2870 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher once again on speculative short covering tied to ideas of reduced production in the US and Canada as ideas of demand problems and Canada’s own problems with China continue. It was a light volume trade. The weather is mixed, with many areas still dry and crops getting stressed, but some areas in the southwest parts getting some rains this week. The Canadian Dollar was a little weaker. Palm Oil was a little lower on disappointing demand data from SGS. Futures made a new low for the move, then recovered to close with slight losses.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 366,242 tons so far this month, from 377,235 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 444.00, 442.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 452.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1660 September, with resistance at 1980, 2010, and 2020 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but scattered showers possible tomorrow. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +52 Sep +153 Sep +40 Sep +53 Aug N/A N/A
August +50 Sep +52 Sep +50 Aug
September +51 Sep +60 Sep +35 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 9
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 9 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, July 9.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 437.30 -10.00 Nov 2019 up 4.50
Track Thunder Bay 455.80 7.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
Track Vancouver 466.80 18.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 485.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 487.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 490.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 510.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 490.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 492.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 495.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 472.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 350.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1890.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 131.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1365)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 142,346 lots, or 4.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,380 3,380 3,380 0 0 0
Sep-19 3,400 3,423 3,388 3,397 3,385 3,406 21 133,236 142,192
Nov-19 3,468 3,494 3,462 3,473 3,446 3,475 29 76 306
Jan-20 3,395 3,420 3,395 3,409 3,400 3,409 9 7,808 52,352
Mar-20 – – – 3,427 3,427 3,427 0 0 30
May-20 3,515 3,521 3,506 3,518 3,503 3,515 12 1,226 25,676
Corn
Turnover: 769,568 lots, or 14.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,912 1,912 1,912 1,912 1,912 1,912 0 2 718
Sep-19 1,923 1,925 1,910 1,911 1,924 1,916 -8 486,548 924,428
Nov-19 1,954 1,954 1,940 1,942 1,955 1,947 -8 89,970 341,116
Jan-20 1,982 1,984 1,971 1,972 1,986 1,977 -9 171,792 567,596
Mar-20 2,007 2,007 1,990 1,990 2,003 1,999 -4 728 2,270
May-20 2,047 2,047 2,034 2,036 2,049 2,039 -10 20,528 105,606
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,968,306 lots, or 54.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 2,764 2,764 2,764 0 0 0
Aug-19 2,756 2,776 2,747 2,776 2,735 2,760 25 112 2,336
Sep-19 2,753 2,781 2,747 2,779 2,741 2,764 23 1,580,916 1,727,860
Nov-19 2,801 2,811 2,784 2,810 2,780 2,794 14 123,100 199,522
Dec-19 2,795 2,836 2,791 2,836 2,798 2,814 16 558 1,240
Jan-20 2,820 2,839 2,812 2,838 2,811 2,826 15 229,972 561,882
Mar-20 2,764 2,778 2,764 2,775 2,748 2,772 24 44 750
May-20 2,724 2,735 2,715 2,734 2,717 2,727 10 33,604 213,584
Palm Oil
Turnover: 462,232 lots, or 19.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 4,234 4,234 4,234 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,188 4,224 4,180 4,190 4,212 4,198 -14 362,268 607,570
Oct-19 4,296 4,296 4,296 4,296 4,338 4,296 -42 2 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,502 4,544 4,502 -42 0 28
Dec-19 – – – 4,452 4,452 4,452 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,408 4,434 4,398 4,404 4,434 4,412 -22 95,550 231,998
Feb-20 – – – 4,470 4,470 4,470 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,612 4,634 4,612 -22 0 2
May-20 4,636 4,656 4,628 4,630 4,664 4,638 -26 4,412 21,614
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,718 4,692 -26 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 395,824 lots, or 21.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 5,396 5,396 5,396 0 0 38
Sep-19 5,420 5,462 5,410 5,442 5,452 5,442 -10 322,210 644,476
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 5,664 5,670 5,604 5,616 5,602 5,640 38 52 38
Jan-20 5,570 5,626 5,570 5,604 5,616 5,604 -12 71,764 249,218
Mar-20 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 12
May-20 5,692 5,736 5,692 5,710 5,734 5,718 -16 1,798 31,838
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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