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Grains Report 07/09/19


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DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019-20 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2019-20 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2018-19
All Wheat 1,905 1,700-1,995 1,903 1,884
Winter Wheat 1,278 1,231-1,314 1,274 1,184
Hard Red Winter 804 783-835 794 662
Soft Red Winter 254 240-262 258 286
White Winter 224 220-234 222 236
Other Spring 581 550-625 N/A 623
Durum 60 44-80 N/A 77
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
AgriVisor 1,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Allendale 1,867 1,269 783 262 224 553 44
DC Analysis 1,920 1,279 799 260 220 583 58
Doane 1,880 1,264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Farm Futures 1,936 1,231 793 256 234 N/A 58
Grain Cycles 1,885 1,265 785 260 220 N/A N/A
INTL FCStone 1,921 1,286 806 256 224 576 59
Northstar 1,995 1,290 820 245 225 625 80
Sid Love Consulting 1,923 1,295 818 255 222 N/A N/A
Price Futures 1,931 1,286 808 255 223 586 59
Prime Ag 1,950 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RMC 1,898 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1,944 1,314 835 252 227 575 55
Vantage RM 1,925 1,274 794 258 222 598 53
US Commodities 1,910 1,300 810 240 225 N/A N/A
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,891 1,266 794 254 222 550 75

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,511 12,566-13,880 13,680 14,420
Soybean Production 3,850 3,700-4,015 4,150 4,544
Corn Yield 164.9 162.0-167.0 166.0 176.4
Soybean Yield 48.4 47.0-50.0 49.5 51.6
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriVisor 13,880 166.0 3,900 49.5
Allendale 13,745 163.0 3,890 49.0
DC Analysis 13,636 166.5 3,710 48.0
Doane 13,163 162.5 3,700 47.4
Farm Futures 13,348 167.0 3,948 49.8
Grain Cycles 13,878 166.0 3,871 49.0
INTL FCStone 12,566 165.0 3,812 47.5
Northstar 13,675 167.0 3,802 47.0
Price Futures 13,625 163.0 3,945 50.0
Prime Ag 13,710 164.0 3,762 47.5
RMC 13,100 165.0 4,015 48.5
Sid Love Consulting 13,256 166.0 3,994 48.0
US Commodities 13,877 165.0 3,738 47.3
Vantage RM 13,349 162.0 3,865 48.8
Zaner Ag Hedge 13,861 166.0 3,803 48.0

DJ U.S. July Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,179 1,615-2,385 2,195
Soybeans 1,038 935-1,100 1,070
Wheat 1,076 1,055-1,102 1,102
2019-20
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,642 1,235-1,942 1,675
Soybeans 812 558-1,111 1,045
Wheat 1,028 925-1,092 1,072
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriVisor 2,250 1,100 1,070 1,850 950 975
Allendale 2,270 1,024 1,072 1,736 869 1,049
DC Analysis 2,270 1,038 N/A 1,681 588 925
Doane 2,220 1,025 1,072 1,410 650 1,010
Farm Futures 2,385 974 1,072 1,716 916 1,092
Grain Cycles 2,220 1,050 1,072 1,858 806 1,021
INTL FCStone 2,224 1,094 1,072 1,235 1,111 991
Sid Love Consulting 2,145 1,040 1,072 1,451 854 1,060
Northstar 2,070 1,000 1,102 1,545 720 1,000
Price Futures 2,145 1,005 1,072 1,570 815 1,070
Prime-Ag 2,245 1,040 1,072 1,655 627 1,074
RMC 1,615 935 1,055 1,655 985 1,055
RJ O’Brien 2,290 1,085 N/A 1,742 876 1,079
US Commodities 2,270 1,090 1,082 1,942 558 1,030
Vantage RM 2,155 1,070 1,102 1,504 895 997
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,095 1,030 1072 1,726 773 1,020

DJ July World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA June
Corn 325.0 320.0-329.6 325.4
Soybeans 112.6 111.6-115.5 112.8
Wheat 276.1 273.0-278.0 276.6
2019-20
Average Range USDA June
Corn 290.2 282.4-294.5 290.5
Soybeans 110.7 103.0-124.1 112.7
Wheat 290.8 279.9-295.0 294.3
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriVisor 320.0 113.0 278.0 285.5 114.0 292.0
Allendale 326.4 111.6 275.2 292.6 110.2 293.7
Doane 325.0 113.0 276.0 283.5 108.0 292.0
Farm Futures 329.6 112.3 273.0 294.5 107.0 286.4
Grain Cycles 326.0 112.0 276.5 291.0 109.5 289.0
INTL FCStone 322.7 115.5 276.2 282.4 124.1 279.9
Northstar 325.0 112.8 276.0 294.0 109.0 294.0
Prime-Ag 326.0 112.0 276.0 290.0 104.0 295.0
RMC 325.0 111.8 276.3 289.9 112.5 293.9
US Commodities 325.0 112.8 277.0 294.5 103.0 293.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 323.8 112.0 276.6 294.2 115.9 289.7

DJ July Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 100.9 99.7-102.0 101.0
Soybeans 117.0 116.0-118.0 117.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriVisor 101.00 116.00
Allendale 101.00 117.00
DC Analysis 102.00 117.00
Doane 101.00 117.00
INTL FCStone 99.70 116.50
Northstar 101.00 117.00
Price Futures 101.00 117.00
Prime Ag 101.00 117.00
RMC 101.20 117.20
US Commodities 101.00 118.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 100.50 117.00
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 49.2 48.8-50.0 49.0
Soybeans 56.1 55.8-57.0 56.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriVisor 50.00 57.00
Allendale 49.00 56.00
DC Analysis 49.00 56.00
Doane 49.00 56.00
INTL FCStone 48.75 56.25
Northstar 49.00 56.00
Price Futures 49.00 56.00
Prime Ag 49.00 56.00
RMC 49.10 56.20
US Commodities 49.30 55.80

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 8
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 04, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/04/2019 06/27/2019 07/05/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 122 0 0 1,175 807
CORN 703,192 284,923 1,477,999 42,462,982 47,238,545
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,098
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 70,143 56,255 14,283 1,708,572 4,785,376
SOYBEANS 757,903 720,842 668,014 37,859,985 50,342,823
SUNFLOWER 0 0 335 0 335
WHEAT 609,456 696,142 268,221 2,593,545 1,751,010
Total 2,140,816 1,758,162 2,428,852 84,626,582 104,120,042
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 7-Jul 30-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 47 37 57 54
Cotton Setting Bolls 13 7 20 16
Corn Emerged 98 94 100 100
Corn Silking 8 34 22
Soybeans Planted 96 92 100 99
Soybeans Emerged 90 83 100 98
Soybeans Blooming 10 44 32
Sorghum Planted 97 94 100 99
Sorghum Headed 22 20 25 26
Sorghum Coloring 13 16 16
Rice Headed 16 10 20 22
Peanuts Pegging 58 47 56 53
Oats Headed 74 58 90 90
Winter Wheat Harvested 47 30 61 61
Spring Wheat Headed 56 25 78 73
Barley Headed 55 31 74 75
Sunflowers Planted 95 85 94 95

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 17 27 47 7
Cotton Last Week 5 13 30 45 7
Cotton Last Year 8 19 32 34 7

Corn This Week 3 9 31 47 10
Corn Last Week 3 9 32 47 9
Corn Last Year 2 5 18 54 21

Soybeans This Week 3 9 35 46 7
Soybeans Last Week 2 9 35 47 7
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 22 55 16

Sorghum This Week 1 2 24 61 12
Sorghum Last Week 0 2 25 63 10
Sorghum Last Year 4 11 34 46 5

Rice This Week 1 6 27 49 17
Rice Last Week 1 4 27 54 14
Rice Last Year 1 5 22 59 13

Oats This Week 2 5 28 56 9
Oats Last Week 2 5 28 56 9
Oats Last Year 3 3 21 60 13

Peanuts This Week 1 4 27 60 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 26 60 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 28 61 7

Barley This Week 1 4 22 63 10
Barley Last Week 1 4 23 64 8
Barley Last Year 1 2 12 68 17

Winter Wheat This Week 3 7 26 47 17
Winter Wheat Last Week 3 7 27 48 15
Winter Wheat Last Year 15 19 29 28 9

Spring Wheat This Week 0 3 19 70 8
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 3 21 67 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 3 16 66 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 2 6 24 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 2 5 24 55 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 7 14 28 42 9

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 10, 2019 21 Jul 03, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 10, 2019 173 Jul 08, 2019
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 10, 2019 2 Jun 27, 2019
CORN July Jul. 10, 2019 440 Jul 08, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 10, 2019 5 Jun 21, 2019
SOYBEAN July Jul. 10, 2019 400 Jul 08, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on ideas of good harvest progress and high yields. USDA confirmed that the Winter Wheat harvest was moving faster than previously and also showed improved Spring Wheat crop condition. Reports from the fields indicates that yields are high as Winter Wheat crops have had more than enough moisture this year. It is drier now and that is allowing for the increased harvest pace. There was no real news to support Wheat prices. Rains are improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. Drier weather in forecast for Canada. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is almost harvest time for Winter crops in these areas. Conditions are very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off and on all weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers later this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 499 September. Support is at 501, 499, and 494 September, with resistance at 519, 528, and 535 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 431, 425, and 418 September, with resistance at 452, 463, and 472 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 529, 524, and 521 September, and resistance is at 543, 546, and 549 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 482,398
: Positions :
: 67,741 81,434 162,622 63,442 150,770 156,094 42,248 449,899 437,075: 32,498 45,323
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: -13,957) :
: 3,223 -3,961 -2,909 -7,101 -1,828 -4,624 -3,587 -11,411 -12,285: -2,547 -1,672
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 16.9 33.7 13.2 31.3 32.4 8.8 93.3 90.6: 6.7 9.4
: Total Traders: 365 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 109 123 72 104 43 24 276 294:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 286,499
: Positions :
: 47,059 64,522 74,541 80,064 103,832 59,214 20,448 260,877 263,342: 25,622 23,157
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: 8,594) :
: 3,324 2,569 2,799 4,266 -2,080 -1,283 5,117 9,105 8,405: -512 189
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.4 22.5 26.0 27.9 36.2 20.7 7.1 91.1 91.9: 8.9 8.1
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 58 65 64 71 33 11 196 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 2, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 50,625 :
: Positions :
: 29,145 25,123 1,446 0 310 1,645 10,462 176 5,902 1,654 2,608 :
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 :
: -925 -3,311 0 0 -165 -356 407 -275 -182 43 -163 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.6 49.6 2.9 0.0 0.6 3.2 20.7 0.3 11.7 3.3 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 85 :
: 45 30 . 0 . 5 10 . 9 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 2, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 24,845 :
: Positions :
: 8,271 21,171 2,910 107 1,017 9,375 0 1,065 908 0 724 :
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 :
: 171 1,463 179 107 -312 1,009 0 -439 -23 -39 -175 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.3 85.2 11.7 0.4 4.1 37.7 0.0 4.3 3.7 0.0 2.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 12 14 . . . 4 0 . 4 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher as traders anticipate changes made in the supply and demand reports later this week. USDA showed mixed condition in the weekly crop updates last night, with a good part of the crop showing some improvement but some showing deterioration. Traders were also buying the market after learning that China had bought US Rice. The news was released by USA Rice and it could be very bullish. No one know how much Rice was bought by China. China has never bought in volume here and the industry has worked very hard for this day. The market could rally significantly if China keeps buying in the US. The weather is improving in Rice country as it finally seems to be turning warmer and drier. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. June rains were less than average this year and even some cities are worried that they can run out of water unless the rains get significantly better. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1187 and 1220 September. Support is at 1166, 1154, and 1141 September, with resistance at 1185, 1192, and 1202 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on production concerns. USDA showed that crop condition was as expected, but that the crops remain very late. A trip over the weekend to east central Wisconsin showed tht no
Corn was above knee-high and that much of the crop was well under one foot tall. The color was good, but the dates are late and the crops might be destined for silage and not for cash grain sales. This is a large dairy area so the silage can be used, but the crops are still very late even for producing good silage. A trip to west-central Illinois also displayed very uneven growth and showed the spread of planting times due to the big rains during the Spring and early Summer. The weather is better and the crops are showing better progress, but some might not make it to maturity before first freeze dates. Chart trends have turned sideways before the latest WASDE supply and demand outlooks to be released later this week
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 430, 425, and 421 September, and resistance is at 447, 452, and 458 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 275, 270, and 268 September, and resistance is at 282, 283, and 288 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,319,482
: Positions :
: 283,153 152,355 591,538 641,849 1,153,717 444,692 158,637 1,961,232 2,056,248: 358,250 263,235
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: -60,508) :
: -6,736 10,703 -4,967 -24,705 -36,287 -242 -6,292 -36,650 -36,843: -23,858 -23,665
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 6.6 25.5 27.7 49.7 19.2 6.8 84.6 88.7: 15.4 11.3
: Total Traders: 973 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 248 141 261 426 440 50 32 835 775:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 2, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,060 :
: Positions :
: 603 3,885 144 0 0 1,014 0 0 1,311 21 120 :
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 :
: -192 -138 8 0 0 64 0 0 -7 19 -28 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 76.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 25.9 0.4 2.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 6 10 . 0 0 7 0 0 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mostly higher as the market started to prepare for the latest WASDE supply and demand updates later this week. Traders got some bullish news from the crop progress and condition reports that showed lower condition ratings. The market had expected a slight improvement. A quick trip to east central Wisconsin over the weekend showed that all Soybeans were very far behind normal progress. Many fields had just emerged and no fields showed plants much over six inches tall. These crops have a long way to go before there can be much of a harvest for Soybeans in this area this year. A trip by a colleague to western Illinois showed uneven crop progress and condition. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 856 August. Support is at 871, 865, and 863 August, and resistance is at 890, 893, and 903 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 303.00 August. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 310.00, 313.00, and 316.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2720 August. Support is at 2760, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2870 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 784,366
: Positions :
: 62,448 120,432 226,062 281,198 320,742 155,477 35,534 725,185 702,770: 59,181 81,597
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: -4,170) :
: -2,587 -1,063 78 9,490 1,337 -4,326 -5,051 2,655 -4,699: -6,825 529
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 15.4 28.8 35.9 40.9 19.8 4.5 92.5 89.6: 7.5 10.4
: Total Traders: 579 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 147 128 196 181 206 45 27 474 480:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 439,117
: Positions :
: 67,164 105,289 79,786 122,188 192,395 136,322 29,662 405,459 407,133: 33,658 31,984
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: -14,552) :
: 1,590 1,137 -6,829 -9,364 -13,055 -701 1,238 -15,304 -17,510: 753 2,958
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 24.0 18.2 27.8 43.8 31.0 6.8 92.3 92.7: 7.7 7.3
: Total Traders: 307 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 80 91 78 67 38 21 243 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 02, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 467,675
: Positions :
: 40,938 56,981 115,747 163,430 229,807 100,413 34,921 420,528 437,456: 47,147 30,218
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 (Change in open interest: -24,596) :
: -1,506 10,001 -14,366 -5,093 -19,988 -1,022 1,269 -21,987 -23,085: -2,608 -1,511
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 12.2 24.7 34.9 49.1 21.5 7.5 89.9 93.5: 10.1 6.5
: Total Traders: 271 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 61 93 93 84 32 18 237 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on speculative short covering tied to ideas of reduced production in the US and Canada as ideas of demand problems and Canada’s own problems with China continue. The weather is mixed, with many areas still dry and crops getting stressed, but some areas in the southwest parts getting some rains this week. The Canadian Dollar was a little weaker. Palm Oil was a little higher on currency considerations, but weaker demand and stronger production are still in the background. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 444.00, 442.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 452.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1660 September, with resistance at 1980, 2010, and 2020 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 2, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 145,027 :
: Positions :
: 108,687 39,279 1,659 1,913 388 14,055 65,022 4,420 3,412 20,396 11,767 :
: Changes from: June 25, 2019 :
: 6,557 -2,511 43 -337 28 -1,279 6,066 -948 -396 1,672 -991 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 74.9 27.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 9.7 44.8 3.0 2.4 14.1 8.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 243 :
: 26 34 4 . . 6 54 12 36 89 26 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but scattered showers possible tomorrow. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +48 Sep +153 Sep +40 Sep +53 Aug N/A N/A
August +47 Sep +50 Sep +53 Aug
September +50 Sep +60 Sep +38 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July +150 Aug +10 Aug +70 Aug
August +160 Aug +10 Aug +80 Aug
September +140 Sep +10 Sep +100 Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 8
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 432.80 -10.00 Nov 2019 dn 5.90
Track Thunder Bay 454.30 7.00 Nov 2019 up 4.50
Track Vancouver 465.30 18.00 Nov 2019 up 4.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 490.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 492.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 495.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 495.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 497.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 500.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 475.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 352.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 132.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1420)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 108,178 lots, or 3.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,380 3,380 3,380 0 0 0
Sep-19 3,391 3,403 3,366 3,401 3,408 3,385 -23 96,682 147,652
Nov-19 3,464 3,465 3,432 3,465 3,464 3,446 -18 64 276
Jan-20 3,412 3,416 3,389 3,402 3,417 3,400 -17 9,730 52,640
Mar-20 – – – 3,427 3,427 3,427 0 0 30
May-20 3,505 3,515 3,495 3,515 3,516 3,503 -13 1,702 25,606
Corn
Turnover: 852,016 lots, or 16.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,907 1,907 1,907 1,907 1,917 1,912 -5 4 720
Sep-19 1,931 1,935 1,918 1,921 1,936 1,924 -12 559,482 952,766
Nov-19 1,962 1,964 1,947 1,950 1,967 1,955 -12 29,680 341,568
Jan-20 1,995 1,998 1,979 1,982 1,999 1,986 -13 242,170 579,262
Mar-20 2,014 2,016 2,000 2,004 2,018 2,003 -15 752 2,460
May-20 2,053 2,060 2,044 2,046 2,059 2,049 -10 19,928 102,302
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,717,666 lots, or 74.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 2,764 2,764 2,764 0 0 0
Aug-19 2,760 2,767 2,710 2,749 2,760 2,735 -25 396 2,412
Sep-19 2,767 2,771 2,716 2,759 2,784 2,741 -43 2,141,798 1,793,678
Nov-19 2,804 2,807 2,755 2,794 2,821 2,780 -41 104,906 214,894
Dec-19 2,793 2,813 2,774 2,786 2,772 2,798 26 646 1,060
Jan-20 2,830 2,835 2,790 2,820 2,847 2,811 -36 392,250 574,818
Mar-20 2,755 2,766 2,735 2,757 2,775 2,748 -27 26 768
May-20 2,733 2,733 2,706 2,724 2,742 2,717 -25 77,644 214,828
Palm Oil
Turnover: 656,934 lots, or 27.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 4,234 4,234 4,234 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,238 4,248 4,172 4,176 4,244 4,212 -32 534,954 634,744
Oct-19 4,338 4,338 4,338 4,338 4,260 4,338 78 2 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,544 4,464 4,544 80 0 28
Dec-19 – – – 4,452 4,452 4,452 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,450 4,464 4,398 4,400 4,454 4,434 -20 120,218 227,322
Feb-20 – – – 4,470 4,490 4,470 -20 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,598 4,618 4,598 -20 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,634 4,654 4,634 -20 0 2
May-20 4,684 4,690 4,630 4,632 4,676 4,664 -12 1,760 21,560
Jun-20 – – – 4,718 4,730 4,718 -12 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 659,894 lots, or 36.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 0
Aug-19 – – – 5,396 5,396 5,396 0 0 38
Sep-19 5,450 5,486 5,406 5,408 5,438 5,452 14 517,386 661,880
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 5,672 5,672 5,568 5,568 5,576 5,602 26 6 14
Jan-20 5,620 5,656 5,572 5,572 5,608 5,616 8 133,748 255,776
Mar-20 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 2 12
May-20 5,740 5,762 5,682 5,692 5,728 5,734 6 8,752 31,804
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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