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Softs Report 06/18/19


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Crop Progress
Date 16-Jun 9-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 89 75 95 94
Cotton Squaring 19 11 21 18
Corn Planted 92 83 100 100
Corn Emerged 79 62 79 97
Soybeans Planted 77 60 96 93
Soybeans Emerged 55 34 69 84
Sorghum Planted 69 49 88 81
Sorghum Headed 15 14 18 16
Rice Emerged 94 87 100 99
Peanuts Planted 94 91 95 97
Peanuts Pegging 16 12 10
Oats Emerged 94 87 98 99
Oats Headed 33 28 50 54
Winter Wheat Headed 89 83 94 95
Winter Wheat Harvested 8 4 25 20
Spring Wheat Emerged 95 85 97 97
Spring Wheat Headed 2 8 12
Barley Emerged 92 86 95 96
Barley Headed 2 7 12
Sunflowers Planted 68 42 81 80

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 4 11 36 42 7
Cotton Last Week 7 8 41 37 7
Cotton Last Year 5 21 36 33 5

Corn This Week 2 8 31 52 7
Corn Last Week 2 7 32 52 7
Corn Last Year 1 3 18 59 19

Rice This Week 1 6 30 51 12
Rice Last Week 1 6 32 52 9
Rice Last Year 0 3 23 60 14

Oats This Week 2 4 28 58 8
Oats Last Week 2 4 29 57 8
Oats Last Year 4 3 23 58 12

Peanuts This Week 1 6 29 59 5
Peanuts Last Week 1 6 33 58 2
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 31 57 7

Barley This Week 1 6 17 63 13
Barley Last Week 0 2 14 68 16
Barley Last Year 1 2 13 72 12

Winter Wheat This Week 2 7 27 51 13
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 7 27 50 14
Winter Wheat Last Year 15 18 28 30 9

Spring Wheat This Week 1 1 21 69 8
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 1 18 73 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 2 19 64 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 1 5 23 56 15
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 1 5 25 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 14 32 40 8

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in new crop months as traders become more concerned about planting progress and crop development of this crop. July was a little lower as traders roll or liquidate positions before First Notice Day next Monday. Trends have turned down on the daily and weekly charts with the price action of the last couple of weeks. The weather has been bad, especially in the Texas Panhandle, where there are concerns that it has been too wet and cool for the crop to be developed well. However, USDA showed good progress and steady condition ratings. The Delta has also been wet and it has been dry in the Southeast, although better rains have been seen lately in this region. Demand is a problem for traders due mostly to moves made in Washington. Cotton is already experiencing lost business potential with China and Turkey and could get hurt if Vietnam is targeted for tariffs later on. Also pressuring the market are forecasts for big production around the world. USDA sees no shortage of Cotton anywhere in the coming year. The Indian monsoon is finally getting going so weather concerns for Cotton there will become less.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get showers and storms this week. Temperatures should be mostly near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather this week and showers and storms again this weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 61.35 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,526 bales, from 93,721 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6240 July. Support is at 6520, 6490, and 6450 July, with resistance of 6700, 6750, and 6850 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed, with nearby months a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Speculators are rolling or covering positions before July goes into delivery at the end of the month. Speculators have been buying in anticipation of the hurricane season, but there are no storms on the horizon this early in the season. The season started on June 1. Trends are sideways to down on the daily charts and sideways weekly charts as the market looks at a big orange crop and weak demand for FCOJ. USDA production estimates are above 70 million boxes. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as golf balls. Crop conditions are called good. Irrigation is being used a few times a week to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil as the harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms through the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 100.00, 97.00, and 95.00 July, with resistance at 106.00, 108.00, and 113.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were little changed with much of Latin America celebrating Fathers Day. The Real was lower to put some pressure on prices. The Real might have made a short-term top, so Brazil producers will wait for a weaker Real before selling much more. A strong export pace from Brazil remains a problem for the bulls. Brazil exported over 3.0 million bags of Coffee again last month. The Brazil harvest is moving along at a slow pace. Reports indicate that the yields are not real strong and that the quality of the crop is poor due to extreme weather seen early in the growing season. Vietnam is also reporting lower yields for the current crop as the weather was not good for flowering earlier in the year. There have been some hot and dry spells that have hurt yield and quality for these crops as well. Buyers are now more actively pursuing other origins, especially for certified or higher end coffees. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Even so, most analysts are looking for production to be at or just above 50 million bags.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.381 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 96.44 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 88.00, 85.00, and 81.00 July. Support is at 95.00, 90.00, and 88.00 July, and resistance is at 100.00, 103.00 and 106.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1240 July. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1290 July, and resistance is at 1420, 1440, and 1460 July.

SUGAR
General Comments Futures closed a little lower on reports that the monsoon in India was getting more active and on statements from the Indian Sugar Association that the country still had surplus Sugar to sell. Weaker petroleum prices were also negative, but higher Corn prices kept ideas of better demand for Sugar based Ethanol alive.. Processing of Brazilian Sugar is faster now with the harvest in full swing. Chart patterns on the weekly charts are sideways in both markets. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support some of the big production ideas. Demand seems to be average and routine. There are concerns that the Indian monsoon will not be strong this year and that Sugarcane production could be hurt. It is hot and dry there so far, but there are signs that the monsoon is ready to develop. Even so, there are now a lot of private forecasts that June rains in both India and Pakistan will be below average. The government weather services there is looking for a normal monsoon, but many private forecasters expect less rain and warmer temperatures than normal. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand. Demand for Sugar has been average, and demand for ethanol is reported to be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1290, 1300, and 1330 October. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1240 October, and resistance is at 1310, 1350, and 1370 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 339.00, 336.00, and 333.00 October, and resistance is at 345.00, 347.00, and 349.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower on follow through speculative long liquidation. Ghana Cocoa authorities noted disease problems in its crop and said that mid crop production could be hurt. The disease could hurt the mid crop and probably will affect the next main crop that will be harvested at the end of the year. They say that about 50,000 tons were lost in the midcrop. The mid crop harvest is winding down in West Africa and reports are generally positive, although some Nigerian producers have complained that the weather is not giving them the best conditions for top yields. Otherwise, the weather is called good with above average rains reported in Ivory Coast last week. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. Cocoa arrivals are now 2.051 million tons, from 1.829 million last year. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Demand appears strong. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but East Africa has been a little dry as has Malaysia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.594 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2430 and 2370 September. Support is at 2440, 2410, and 2380 September, with resistance at 2500, 2530, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1810, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1860, 1870, and 1910 September.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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