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Grains Report 06/18/19


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Crop Progress
Date 16-Jun 9-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Planted 89 75 95 94
Cotton Squaring 19 11 21 18
Corn Planted 92 83 100 100
Corn Emerged 79 62 79 97
Soybeans Planted 77 60 96 93
Soybeans Emerged 55 34 69 84
Sorghum Planted 69 49 88 81
Sorghum Headed 15 14 18 16
Rice Emerged 94 87 100 99
Peanuts Planted 94 91 95 97
Peanuts Pegging 16 12 10
Oats Emerged 94 87 98 99
Oats Headed 33 28 50 54
Winter Wheat Headed 89 83 94 95
Winter Wheat Harvested 8 4 25 20
Spring Wheat Emerged 95 85 97 97
Spring Wheat Headed 2 8 12
Barley Emerged 92 86 95 96
Barley Headed 2 7 12
Sunflowers Planted 68 42 81 80

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 4 11 36 42 7
Cotton Last Week 7 8 41 37 7
Cotton Last Year 5 21 36 33 5

Corn This Week 2 8 31 52 7
Corn Last Week 2 7 32 52 7
Corn Last Year 1 3 18 59 19

Rice This Week 1 6 30 51 12
Rice Last Week 1 6 32 52 9
Rice Last Year 0 3 23 60 14

Oats This Week 2 4 28 58 8
Oats Last Week 2 4 29 57 8
Oats Last Year 4 3 23 58 12

Peanuts This Week 1 6 29 59 5
Peanuts Last Week 1 6 33 58 2
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 31 57 7

Barley This Week 1 6 17 63 13
Barley Last Week 0 2 14 68 16
Barley Last Year 1 2 13 72 12

Winter Wheat This Week 2 7 27 51 13
Winter Wheat Last Week 2 7 27 50 14
Winter Wheat Last Year 15 18 28 30 9

Spring Wheat This Week 1 1 21 69 8
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 1 18 73 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 2 19 64 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 1 5 23 56 15
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 1 5 25 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 14 32 40 8

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 17
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 13, 2019
METRIC TONS
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/13/2019 06/06/2019 06/14/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 196 98 196 98
CORN 653,875 851,765 1,680,329 40,832,978 42,681,556
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 0 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 299 0 299 599
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 3,032 52,436 31,125 1,468,721 4,761,341
SOYBEANS 675,302 734,074 818,837 35,644,360 48,308,014
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 375,365 476,290 374,340 797,378 793,929
Total 1,707,574 2,115,060 2,904,753 78,743,932 96,545,585
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed again yesterday. The USDA reports showed better progress and stable condition ratings last night. The trade had expected improved ratings from the Spring Wheat crop but did not really get that. Minneapolis was under some pressure from reports of beneficial rains in the Canadian Prairies. Forecasts for Russian areas have moderated and the reports of improved weather have imply that crop will be in better condition soon. HRW markets had trouble generating much enthusiasm on reports of strong yield potential. The harvest is starting to expand now so new reports will be heard. Meanwhile, things are very slow in the Midwest due to the rain that have made harvest difficult at best. The weather in the Great Plains seems to be a little better now and ideas are that a high yielding crop is coming. However, there have also been reports that some of the Wheat is not good and will be used as feed for dairy interests in the region. Overall quality is expected to be down due to all of the rain. The crop is expected to feature lower protein levels this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers tomorrow and late in the week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation all week. Temperatures should be near o above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 535, 529, and 522 July, with resistance at 544, 549, and 551 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 508 and 601 July. Support is at 465, 454, and 450 July, with resistance at 481, 497, and 501 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 559, 556, and 551 July, and resistance is at 570, 573, and 574 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in quiet trading. The crop reports from USDA showed the emergence is almost complete and that the crop is looking better now after a very rough start. The data does not say how many acres got planted, but some did not get done due to the wet Spring. USDA will try to show how much did not get planted when it releases its planted area report in a couple of weeks. However, planting in many areas got so delayed that USDA might not have a definitive number by then. California is also having some weather problems from too much rain, but the crop condition there is strong as it usually is. The crop was planted a little late and the crop condition ratings have not been as strong as is normally seen in the state. Crop development seems to be generally good and crops in southern areas are now in flood. This has helped ease some quality concerns for producers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers most of this week. Temperatures should above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1156, 1154, and 1146 July, with resistance at 1168, 1179, and 1183 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as the trade worried about production potential and crop progress. USDA showed after the close that the progress was near expectations and that condition was stable. The worst looking crops remain in the central and eastern parts of the Corn Belt due to too much rain.. Corn futures are trading at the highest levels since 2014. USDA showed that 92% of the crop has been planted, although some of that area could be prevented plant area counted as completed. Trade estimates are that between seven and ten million acres of Corn will not get planted this year. In addition, USDA cut the yield estimate by ten bushels per acre to 166 bushels per acre. This was a surprise to the market, but one justified by past history given the late planting dates and unfavorable weather. Ideas are that yield potential can continue to work lower unless the weather gets a lot better very soon. The weather is expected to remain unfavorable this week. More rain is expected over the second half of the week, although it will turn a little warmer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 474 and 484 July. Support is at 445, 438, and 436 July, and resistance is at 457, 460, and 463 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 300, 298, and 296 July, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 313 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher yesterday on weather and production concerns. It was a wet and cool weekend in the Midwest and more rain is coming. USDA showed progress that was a little behind trade expectations in its crop updates last night. The weather is becoming a feature in this market as it has for Corn. The trade had assumed that some of the unplanted Corn area could be planted to Soybeans, and this is still very possible. However, the planting of Soybeans has been just as difficult as planting has been for Corn. More rain is in the forecast after rains were reported over the weekend, so planting this week will be difficult. Producers in eastern areas will most likely get the most rain. Producers suggest that they will try to plant through early July and then give up. The total planted area for Soybeans this year will be tough to determine and it is very possible that less will get planted even if producers want to plant more. There are also disease concerns as Soybeans do not like all of this wet weather. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. Neither side seems ready to make a deal right now and in fact the tensions seem to be escalating. China has continued to buy US pork meat as it needs meat in a big way due to the Swine Flu. It is also making deals to buy pork from just about everyone else as the demand is going to be big enough to demand imports from all corners of the globe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 953 July. Support is at 901, 898, and 894 July, and resistance is at 917, 920, and 926 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 329.00 July. Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 315.00 July, and resistance is at 327.00, 328.00, and 331.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2830 and 2950 July. Support is at 2780, 2750, and 2730 July, with resistance at 2820, 2830, and 2870 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on weather concerns in Canada and despite reports of rains in some areas over the weekend. The rains were thought to be too light to help crops. Support still comes from reports of dry weather in Canada and Saskatchewan is the driest province. There were some forecasts for rain in some of the driest areas over the weekend and into this week. The Canadian Dollar was a little weaker on Friday. Demand remains light in the domestic market and the export market. There is hope for increased demand from China as that country bought about double its normal amount of Canadian Wheat last month. Palm Oil was a little lower in correction trading. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. Export demand is said to be improving. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 449.00, and 446.00 July, with resistance at 460.00, 462.00, and 464.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1950 September, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2080 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas again most of this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +66 July +163 July +85 July +70 July +1 July
July +53 July +85 July +51 July
August +45 September +65 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July 110 July -16 July 38 July
August 120 August -12 August 23 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 17
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 444.90 -10.00 July 2019 dn 1.60
Track Thunder Bay 470.40 -5.00 Nov 2019 up 2.50
Track Vancouver 480.40 5.00 Nov 2019 up 5.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 507.50 N/A Unquoted – –
Sep 507.50 N/A Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 512.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 512.50 N/A Unquoted – –
Sep 512.50 N/A Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 472.50 N/A Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 387.50 N/A Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 2,020 N/A Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 137 N/A Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1796)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 137,366 lots, or 4.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 3,361 3,430 3,361 3,430 3,431 3,395 -36 4 604
Sep-19 3,493 3,494 3,452 3,455 3,481 3,471 -10 119,954 140,998
Nov-19 – – – 3,464 3,474 3,464 -10 0 128
Jan-20 3,510 3,510 3,463 3,467 3,496 3,482 -14 12,956 45,586
Mar-20 3,466 3,466 3,460 3,460 3,461 3,463 2 4 36
May-20 3,598 3,598 3,550 3,554 3,574 3,565 -9 4,448 20,628
Corn
Turnover: 719,324 lots, or 14.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,906 1,911 1,899 1,902 1,907 1,903 -4 20,038 71,144
Sep-19 1,950 1,956 1,946 1,949 1,948 1,951 3 449,666 1,067,986
Nov-19 1,986 1,993 1,984 1,987 1,985 1,986 1 127,848 308,750
Jan-20 2,027 2,028 2,017 2,019 2,019 2,021 2 100,774 528,398
Mar-20 2,042 2,047 2,036 2,038 2,038 2,040 2 426 8,608
May-20 2,063 2,100 2,063 2,090 2,094 2,093 -1 20,572 66,696
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,734,934 lots, or 80.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,910 2,910 2,856 2,873 2,888 2,877 -11 2,450 9,668
Aug-19 2,951 2,960 2,868 2,918 2,918 2,940 22 80,858 186,606
Sep-19 2,975 2,980 2,923 2,939 2,950 2,947 -3 2,243,656 1,932,496
Nov-19 2,999 2,999 2,958 2,972 2,993 2,976 -17 402 8,182
Dec-19 2,985 2,985 2,962 2,972 2,988 2,972 -16 30 834
Jan-20 3,025 3,025 2,967 2,988 3,001 2,991 -10 343,098 477,432
Mar-20 2,913 2,913 2,896 2,896 2,961 2,910 -51 28 924
May-20 2,795 2,795 2,747 2,765 2,780 2,765 -15 64,412 203,046
Palm Oil
Turnover: 350,826 lots, or 15.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 4,402 4,414 4,402 -12 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 4,378 4,378 4,378 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,378 4,390 4,368 4,376 4,370 4,376 6 293,648 633,506
Oct-19 – – – 4,494 4,494 4,494 0 0 14
Nov-19 – – – 4,556 4,556 4,556 0 0 22
Dec-19 – – – 4,468 4,462 4,468 6 0 12
Jan-20 4,580 4,586 4,558 4,568 4,570 4,570 0 56,378 152,770
Feb-20 – – – 4,604 4,604 4,604 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 12
Apr-20 4,746 4,746 4,746 4,746 4,654 4,746 92 2 4
May-20 4,778 4,790 4,758 4,764 4,770 4,770 0 798 8,652
Jun-20 – – – 4,770 4,770 4,770 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 322,298 lots, or 17.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 – – – 5,442 5,442 5,442 0 0 34
Sep-19 5,530 5,530 5,488 5,506 5,488 5,502 14 274,416 754,640
Nov-19 – – – 5,536 5,528 5,536 8 0 2
Dec-19 5,654 5,690 5,644 5,690 5,652 5,660 8 18 12
Jan-20 5,680 5,690 5,644 5,662 5,650 5,658 8 46,660 178,344
Mar-20 – – – 5,704 5,696 5,704 8 0 12
May-20 5,768 5,768 5,734 5,746 5,734 5,746 12 1,204 13,576
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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