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Weekend Storms Heighten Planting Concerns

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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 17, 2019.

Grain markets continue to surge higher as weather forecasts continue to show heavy amounts or precipitation through significant areas of the cornbelt region. Trade will focus on crop progress made over the last week and updates on crop conditions.

Last week, July corn futures were up 36.75 cents, July soybean futures up 40.5 cents and July wheat futures up 36 cents. Soyoil futures were up 33 points and soymeal up $10.80.

Weekly crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CST. Trade is looking for corn planting at 95%-96% complete (83% last week, 100% last year and 100% 5-year average). Corn condition rating at 60-61% GTE (59% last week). The first soybean condition rating will likely be released on June 24. Soybean planting expected at 80% (60% last week, 96% last year and 93% 5-year average). Hard red Spring wheat rating at 83% (81% last week). Winter wheat rating at 64% GTE (64% GTE last week).

CFTC Commitment of Traders report (as of 6/11/19) showed managed funds with a new net position for corn futures long +111,212 contracts, short -91,155 soybean contracts, long +1,741 wheat contracts, long +41,138 live cattle contracts and long +38,925 lean hog contracts.

Informa cuts US corn area 8 million acres of March intentions, soy area was increased 370,000 thousand acres and hard red Spring wheat area was decreased 600,000 thousand acres.

NOPA soybean crush report will be released today at 11 a.m. CST for May. Trade estimates May soybean crush at 162.5 million bushels (160 million bushels last month, 163.6 million last year). Soyoil stocks pegged at 1.784 billion lbs. (1.787 billion lbs. last month, 1.856 billion lbs. last year).

President Trump could take further action against China if President Xi doesnt agree to a meeting at the Group of 20 summit in Japan this month, the White Houses top economic adviser said.

France will declare a state of natural disaster after heavy rain and flash hail storms ravaged crops in southeastern France on Saturday, Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume said. "Everything will be done to help. The state of natural disaster will be declared," Guillaume said. "The goal is that no farmers will have to shut down business. We must declare a general mobilization," he added.

USDA weekly hog slaughter was at 2.431 million head (estimated at 2.409 million head). This is 9.9% over last year. Some analyst believe producers were holding back market ready numbers while prices sharply increased a few months ago and now are pushing them to market as prices decline. The slaughter report showed carcass weights 1.4% over last year.

Cattle slaughter was at 665,000 head (estimated at 658,000 head). This was the largest run in five weeks and is 2.6% over last year.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 0.13 and select down 1.95. The CME feeder index is 134.25. Pork cut-out values were up 0.20.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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