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Did Bonds Hit Resistance? The Nemenoff Report 06/13/19

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Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 8 higher at 153’27, 10 Yr. Notes 5 higher at 127’04.5 and 5 Yr. Notes 3 higher at 117’21.25. Of technical interest, even though the t lead month Bond chart looks like an inverted head and shoulders, the week of June 7th the market made a high of 155’22 only one tick above the resistance established the week of Dec. 22nd 2018 of 155’21. Fundamentally the market appears to have built-in a rate cut predicted for July. Personally I question the need for it, seeing as the job market is as tight as it has been in decades. I believe a rate cut will eventually be recessionary and will provide me with reason to abandon current short positions in 5 yr. Notes and the long Dec. 19/ short Dec. 20 Eurodollar spread.
Grains: July Corn is currently 6’4 higher at 436’4, Beans 3’6 higher at 881’6 and Wheat1’6 higher at 528’0. This weeks Grain Report was Bullish Corn, showing a smaller than expected carry out, a cut in expected production from 14.5 billion bushels to 13.68 billion bushels and a cut in yield to 166 bushels per acre from an expected 172.4 bpa. For the moment I remain long Dec. (new crop)/short July (old crop). This spread has given up recent gains with the July gaining 2’6 cents early this morning providing an opportunity to put the spread on under 16’0 cents.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have moved sideways for the week albeit with many triple digit swings. I am looking to late 3rd quarter-early fourth quarter for buying opportunities. I remain short the August 102 put.
Silver: July Silver is currently 4 cents higher at 14.79. On recently purchased additional contracts I am raising my protective sell stop to 14.19.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are 7.75 higher at 2888.25. I will try the short side on rallies with buy stops above the lead month high of 2961.00.
Currencies: I am on the sidelines until after British elections


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About the author

Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc began his career as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Marc Nemenoff quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the CME and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations & Advertising, and Orientation & Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included: Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Contact Marc Nemenoff: (800) 769-7021 or at

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