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Trade Aid & Weather Forecast at Odds

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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for May 24, 2019.

Grain markets continue to juggle a forecast that won't allow for planting with new trade aid that seems to demand it. Remember, markets will not trade Sunday night or during Monday's day session in observance of Memorial Day. They will, however, reopen Monday night at their normal time. Join us in remembering those who gave all.

Acreage questions continue to swirl the market with weather-delayed plantings, prevent plant talks, and now the latest in trade mitigation aid. Rich Nelson shares his latest thoughts on these topics in a free ten minute webinar here.

Corn export sales from 5/10 5/16 totaled 625,959 metric tonnes (442,080 for 2018/19). That was within the wide 250,000 1,050,000 trade expectation. Soybean export sales from 5/10 5/16 totaled 540,948 metric tonnes (535,848 for 2018/19). That was within the wide 100,000 800,000 trade expectation. This is the best sale for this specific week in three years.

Wheat sales were noted at 393,247 metric tonnes (48,395 for 2018/19 and 344,852 for 2019/20), also within the wide trade expectation of 0 700,000 tonnes. Late in the marketing year, we monitor weekly shipments, not sales. To hit their 925 million export goal, we only need shipments of 861 million. We have 846 million bushels shipped out. We only need an extra 15 million bushels in shipments over the next two weeks. That would be a bit under the 38 million from last year in that time.

The government aid package likely put a million or two acres back into corn. The package requires that ground be planted with a crop. That eliminates some of the preventive plant talk. It also does not discriminate between corn or soybean ground. Corn acres will still fall from the March report, perhaps by 2 to 4 million acres. But we are no longer talking about a 3 to 8 million drop.

The U.S. Coast Guard said it has closed the Mississippi River near St. Louis to boat and barge traffic on Thursday for the second time this month due to high water and strong currents on the major shipping waterway. (Reuters)

Managed money funds ended their eight day corn buying streak in yesterday's trade selling 20,500 corn contracts, 6,000 soybeans, 3,000 wheat, 2,000 soymeal, and 4,500 soyoil. It will be interesting to see this afternoon's Commitments of Traders report.

President Trump predicted a swift end to the ongoing trade war with China yesterday, despite the fact that no talks have been scheduled between the countries since the talks ended two weeks ago. He also said he will meet with China's President Xi at the G20 meeting next month in Japan, despite other headlines to the contrary.

Average estimates for today's Cattle on Feed report have analysts looking for Cattle on Feed as of May 1 at 102.9%, April Placements 113%, and April Marketings 106.6%.

Beef export sales were reported at 24,394 metric tonnes and were 148% over last year in the same week. It helps push the year to date numbers to +3.6% year/year.

Weekly pork export sales to all countries came to 46,279 metric tonnes. This was a strong number at 125% over last year in the same week. It helps push the year to date numbers to +17.9% year/year. It included 31,363 metric tonnes to China. That is the second largest sale of the year. We have now sold them 195,188 metric tonnes of US pork, well over last year's 19,333 for the same date.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.04 and select up .72. The CME feeder index is 133.70. Pork cut-out values were down 2.21.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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