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U.S.-China Trade Tensions Ease Slightly

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May 21, 2019


U.S. stock index futures are higher after the U.S. temporarily eased restrictions on Chinas Huawei Technologies, reducing investor concerns over a further escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China.

The 9:00 central time April existing home sales report is expected to be 5.37 million.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the worlds central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term. But, first we need to get past the U.S.-China trade hurdle.


The U.S. dollar advanced to a one month high, as the probability of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December declined.

The euro currency is lower due to concerns about upcoming European parliamentary elections.

The British pound is higher in spite of news that U.K. manufacturing orders came in at the lowest level since late 2016, according to the Confederation of British Industry.

The Australian dollar is lower after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said a rate cut will be discussed at its June 4 policy meeting.


Federal Reserve speakers today are Chicago Federal Reserve Bank PresidentCharles Evansat 9:45 and Boston Federal Reserve Bank PresidentEric Rosengrenat 11:00.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 68% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its December 11 policy meeting, which compares to 73% late last week.

Flight to quality buying continues to underpin futures.


June 19S&P 500

Support 2843.00 Resistance 2867.00

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 97.710 Resistance 97.990

June 19Euro Currency

Support 1.11570 Resistance 1.11990

June 19Japanese Yen

Support .90550 Resistance .91130

June 19Canadian Dollar

Support .74430 Resistance .74780

June 19Australian Dollar

Support .6866 Resistance .6938

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 149^0 Resistance 149^24

June 19Gold

Support 1268.0 Resistance 1279.0

July 19Copper

Support 2.7150 Resistance 2.7500

July 19 Crude Oil

Support 62.85 Resistance 63.95

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

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