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Planting Pace Remains a Concern


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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for May 21, 2019.

Grain markets are trading the slower than expected planting pace and the prospect of a continued wet planting forecast. Talks of prevent plant acres continue to gain momentum as the planting window closes ever slightly with each passing day. Keep in mind that given the opportunity, American farmers have proven their ability to plant a lot of acreage quickly. Will the opportunity present itself?

Crop progress out yesterday reported corn 49% complete as of Sunday, just under the 50% trade estimate, and well under the 80% five year average. It is the lowest of all time for that date. Allendale's Rich Nelson suggests a 5/19 50% planting would push trend yields down by 4%. A push to a 5/20 planting date could make that -4.5% (168.8 bpa).

Soybean plantings were reported at 19% complete, under the 24% trade estimate. The five year average is 47%. Spring wheat planting advanced to 70%, over the 63% trade estimate. While winter wheat ratings improved from 64% to now 66% good to excellent. The average trade guess was for a decline to 63%.

Argentina has requested that the United States accelerate its review of anti-dumping duties it currently slaps on biodiesel imports from the South American nation, one of the world's top exporters of the fuel. (Reuters)

Export inspections for the week ending May 16th had wheat exports of 757,704 tonnes, corn 820,916, and soybeans 497,070. The wheat number was a bit higher than expected. The corn and soybeans numbers were within estimates.

Managed money funds were estimated buyers again yesterday as they continue to cover short positions. Traders estimate they bought 30,000 corn contracts, 8,500 soybeans, 9,000 wheat, 2,500 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimated 2019 pork exports would increase by 20% over last year. That would bring their total to 100,000 metric tonnes. USDA has their 2018 estimate at 45,000 tonnes and 50,000 for 2019.

China announced yet another new case of African Swine Fever. This one was reported in the Sichuan province on a farm of 429 pigs. In the US, USDA will begin testing dead and sick pigs for African Swine Fever.

The cattle showlist estimate came in a little larger than expected at 19,100 head over last year. With next week being a reduced kill week with the Memorial Day holiday, this is a little surprising.

Cattle on Feed will be released this Friday at 11:00 AM CDT. Expect average analysts estimates from the newswires today or tomorrow.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.14 and select down .25. Pork cut-out values were up 1.26.


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About the author


Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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