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Softs Report 05/16/19

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DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – May 16
For the week ended May 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 114.5 419.4 25666.8 23601.6 3517.5 2976.9
hrw 53.1 179.3 9342.2 9269.2 1642.0 1079.1
srw -45.2 73.7 3336.0 2519.5 475.5 560.5
hrs 89.9 85.9 7070.9 6128.5 737.5 637.0
white 23.5 73.8 5417.2 5280.0 610.0 536.5
durum -6.7 6.7 500.3 404.4 52.4 163.7
corn 553.3 80.8 46898.2 52614.4 9897.3 2330.0
soybeans 370.9 303.4 45237.1 55331.3 11873.2 1418.8
soymeal 196.1 69.3 10523.2 10527.7 2868.6 383.1
soyoil 10.8 0.0 696.9 854.4 165.2 4.2
upland cotton 226.9 176.4 14240.8 16188.6 5019.9 3260.0
pima cotton 8.2 0.0 709.4 590.8 234.0 46.1
sorghum 48.8 0.0 1614.1 5359.3 625.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 61.2 33.0 21.0 31.6
rice 78.7 0.0 2939.9 2642.1 633.1 24.4

General Comments: Cotton was mostly lower in active but range bound trading. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. The lack of a deal with China means less potential to sell US Cotton there. China has bought in limited amounts from the US this year as it seeks to cover a short crop of its own. However, it has bought more from India and now can look to Brazil for supplies. There is still expectations that the US can have strong sales with other major exporters starting to run low on supplies, but so far the demand has not really shown up. USDA showed that planting progress was starting to slip behind the average pace in its weekly crop updates this week, and USDA could report slower planting progress in the reports next week due to bad weather in much of the Delta and Southeast last week. Some rains have also appeared in western Texas. There are expectations that Cotton planted area can increase this season as farmers could be attracted to Cotton instead of grains such as Corn or Rice due to relative pricing.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get dry weather until more rain appears this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.81 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 87,530 bales, from 87,391 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against contracts for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 449 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 6520, 6460, and 6400 July, with resistance of 6800, 6860, and 6720 July.

General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering. USDA cut its production estimate last week, but production is still estimated above 70 million boxes. That means that there should be no shortage of oranges available to the market to make FCOJ. Inventories inside the state are significantly higher than a year ago as Florida Citrus Mutual showed a 23% increase in state inventories in its weekly report. The Oranges harvest remains active in Florida as the new crop begins to develop. Producers are concentrating on harvesting Valencia and harvest progress should be strong. Fruit for the next crop is developing and ideas are that the next crop is off to a very good start. Production is very uniform so far this year and development throughout the state is about equal. Some fruit drop is being reported, but this is normal as the trees move to the next crop and drop the old fruit. Irrigation is being used frequently to help protect crop condition. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil and the early harvest should be active.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 111.00 July. Support is at 102.00, 98.00, and 95.00 July, with resistance at 110.00, 113.00, and 117.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
5/4/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/4/2019 5/5/2018 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 302.27 241.52 25.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.23 7.22 -13.7%
Total 308.50 248.74 24.0%
Bulk 5.22 3.82 36.7%
Retail/Institutional 1.13 1.28 -11.8%
Total Pack 6.35 5.10 24.5%
Reprocessed -3.11 -2.88 7.9%
Pack from Fruit 3.24 2.22 46.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.11 -0.02 571.6%
Imports – Foreign 11.78 13.30 -11.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.50 0.03 1447.2%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 0.00 NA
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 316.56 255.77 23.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.36 8.50 -13.4%
Total 323.92 264.27 22.6%
Domestic 5.19 3.71 39.8%
Exports 0.16 0.51 -69.6%
Total (Bulk) 5.34 4.22 26.5%
Domestic 1.17 1.46 -20.2%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.17 1.46 -20.2%
Total Movement 6.51 5.68 14.5%
Bulk 311.22 251.55 23.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.19 7.04 -12.0%
Ending Inventory 317.41 258.58 22.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
4-May-19 5-May-18 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 237.21 185.02 28.2%
Retail/Institutional 5.92 7.20 -17.8%
Total 243.13 192.21 26.5%
Bulk 112.29 81.97 37.0%
Retail/Institutional 37.38 39.45 -5.2%
Total Pack 149.67 121.43 23.3%
Reprocessed -78.57 -83.06 -5.4%
Pack from Fruit 71.09 38.37 85.3%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.73 0.61 18.7%
Imports – Foreign 194.63 199.95 -2.7%
Domestic Receipts 5.13 7.39 -30.6%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.04 0.39 -90.9%
from Non-Reporting Entit 3.28 1.00 227.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.35 0.47 -25.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 473.63 393.75 20.3%
Retail/Institutional 43.30 46.65 -7.2%
Total 516.93 440.39 17.4%
Bulk 148.58 132.25 12.3%
Domestic 13.83 9.95 39.0%
Exports 162.41 142.20 14.2%
Total (Bulk)
Domestic 37.10 39.61 -6.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 37.10 39.61 -6.3%
Total Movement 199.52 181.81 9.7%
Bulk 311.22 251.55 23.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.19 7.04 -12.0%
Ending Inventory 317.41 258.58 22.8%

General Comments: Futures were mixed, with New York a little higher and London a little lower. New York is still in its recent trading range, and London has returned to the previous range. The trade is still worried about big supplies, especially from Brazil and low demand. Brazil is dominating the market, and other exporters are having a lot of trouble finding buyers. However, demand for other origins is starting to improve as buyers look for coffees to blend. Roasters were scale down buyers on the extended down move and now have more than ample supplies in-house or on the way. Prices are generally below to well below the cost of production for world producers, and prices are getting to that point for producers in Brazil and Vietnam. The inventory data shows that supplies in the world are still high. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the next crop might still be big as the weather has been good for the trees so far. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.435 million bags. GA stocks are now 6.345 million bags, from 6.110 million at the end of March. ICE said that 422 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,140 contracts. The ICO daily average price is now 92.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers with near normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 89.00, 88.00, and 86.00 July, and resistance is at 92.00, 95.00 and 97.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1360, 1340, and 1320 July, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1440 July.

General Comments: Futures were a little lower in range trading. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil has improved to support big production ideas. Brazil weather is good in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. However, UNICA reported a slow start to the harvest season in the center-south area due to a lot of rain and Conab estimated higher production, but not so much higher that the trade was worried. Brazil has been using a larger part of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar, but Thailand has shown increased production this year. Ideas that production in India and Pakistan is being hurt by news that Indian mills are selling and have sold about 3.0 million tons of White Sugar into the world market. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but production this year could be less due to reduced area and low prices. Demand for Sugar has been good, and demand for ethanol is reported to be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather or light showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1150, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1200, 1210, and 1230 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 321.00, 318.00, and 315.00 August, and resistance is at 332.00, 334.00, and 336.00 August.

General Comments: Futures closed lower once again yesterday, with both markets testing support, but then bouncing hard and closing with only moderate losses. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong as are exports. The weekly arrivals pace is about 15% higher than a year ago and is holding this level. Arrivals were reported strong in the rest of West Africa as well. Demand appears strong. Growing conditions are generally good in West Africa as there are showers and somewhat cooler temperatures. Continued rains at this time could create another big and high quality crop when harvest begins late in the year. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia, but Brazil has been a little dry as has Malaysia
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.516 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 458 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2280, 2230, and 2190 July, with resistance at 2350, 2380, and 2400 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1700, 1680, and 1640 July. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 July, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1760 July.

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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