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Grains Continue to Climb-Oil Inventories Continue to Grow? The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/15/19


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Busy day with reports with Business Inventories and Retail Sales at 7:30 A.M., Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 8:15 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., NOPA Crush at 11:00 A.M. and Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M. On the Corn front the market and Grain complex is on a charge since Monday’s key reversal and Crop Progress report showed the many discrepancies of where we are and where we should be, not to mention who can plant and who cannot. Also acreage and yields are also coming into question, and the answer most will find, Not Good. In the overnight electronic session the July Corn is currently trading at 376 ¾ which is 8 cents higher. The trading range has been 377 ¼ to 368. Nice warmer weather is on tap today and tomorrow but rains and another cold front which will add soil moisture and keep soil temperatures to cold keeping the farmers at a disadvantage with more unfavorable growing conditions.

On the Ethanol front the prices remain higher even after the Energy correction thanks to higher Grain prices. More stories of Ethanol plants moving to other states to take advantage of better tax breaks and friendlier business attitudes that will work with them. In the overnight electronic session the June Ethanol contract is currently trading at 1.349 which is .016 higher. The trading range has been 1.349 to 1.348. 6 contracts traded and Open Interest is at 1,144 contracts. The market is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.350 and 2 offers @ 1.355.

On the Crude Oil front last nights API showed builds of 8.6 million barrels on Crude, Gas had builds of 600 thousand barrels, Distillates had builds of 2.2 million barrels and Cushing had builds of 2.1 million barrels. I just wonder, did these builds come from the Gulf again with disruptions in the Houston Shipping Channel, or were rail cars not counted earlier that are basking in the Plains going nowhere? This mornings EIA Energy Stocks will have it set of numbers. The only number except Gasoline was that the Distillates number with lower demand in the farming community in this growing season due to weather. We still have geo-political risk on the horizon, with the Houthi’s, who are at war with Saudi Arabia, yesterday said they launched seven drones targeting vital Saudi installations. Houthi Brig. Gen. Yahyi Sari claimed responsibility.  Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said they were not planning for conflict, but the truth ne known, their fingerprints are all over it with their proxies to continue disturbing the peace in the region. In the overnight electronic session the June Crude Oil is currently trading at 6106 which is 72 points lower. The trading range has been 6161 to 6085.  

On the Natural Gas front the market is slipping this morning after steady to higher trade in the overnight electronic session. The June contract is currently trading at 2.623 which is 3 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 2.669 to 2.615.

Have a Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn

 



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About the author


Mr. Daniel Flynn is a trader and analyst with a strong background in the fundamental and technical analysis of Grain and Energy markets.

He started his career in the summer of 1981 as a runner on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange floor, shortly after graduating from Leo High School in Chicago. He learned the futures and options business from the ground up and has proved his commitment and ability to the industry ever since.

Dan's daily newsletter, The Corn & Ethanol Report, gives a unique insight and perspective into these market sectors, covering various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Dan is regularly interviewed by global media outlets on his insights and forecasts.

Dan provides his customers with not only a thorough understanding of the markets and the issues surrounding them, but also how to approach daily risk management in the markets they trade.

Contact Daniel Flynn: (800) 769-7021 or at dflynn@pricegroup.com

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