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Crude Risks and Conundrums. The Energy Report 05/15/19

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Oil prices may be down on a big build in supply but the overall risk to supply is higher than it has been in years. A shocking American Petroleum Institute (API) report eased short-term concern supply issues as they reported an 8.63-million-barrel crude build, although the build might be overstated due to transportation issues in the Houston Shipping Channel. The API finally reported a gasoline build, reporting an increase of 567,000 barrels. A sizable 2.17 increase in distillate supply also eased supply concerns.

But make no mistake about it, rising tensions with Iran could cause a big oil price spike. Drone attacks on Saudi pipelines and U.S. intelligence reports of potential new targets is keeping risks high. The U.S. State Department has ordered the pullout of employees from both the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and its consulate in Erbil.

Bloomberg News reported that “Global oil demand will grow more slowly than previously thought following an economic lull in Asia, the International Energy Agency said, while warning that supplies stand to tighten due to U.S. sanctions on Iran. Disappointing fuel consumption in China, Japan and Brazil meant 2019 started with a “tough quarter,” the agency said, lowering its global demand estimate for the first time since October. As a result, world oil inventories surprisingly swelled during the first three months of the year. Nonetheless, stockpiles are set to plunge sharply this quarter as demand picks up and as U.S. sanctions squeeze production in Iran, which could fall this month to the lowest since the country’s war with Iraq in the 1980s, the IEA said.“
Phil Flynn


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About the author

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of “The Energy Report”.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to The PRICE Futures Group.

Media highlights include: The President of the United States, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS, NBC´s "Today Show" and "Nightly News with Tom Brokaw", CNBC, CNN/CNNfn, FOX´s "O´Reilly Factor", PBS´s "The Newshour with Jim Lehrer" and "Nightly Business Report", MSNBC´s "The News with Brian Williams", The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor´s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, Inside Futures, and National Public Radio.

Contact Phil Flynn: (800) 769-7021 or at

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