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No Man's Land


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We are approaching No Man's Land, The Twilight Zone, the Neutral Zone between the blue lines! Funds have just started getting out of shorts and farmers are reluctant to sell at present values yet happy that we are not beating prices down every day. The 6 to 10 day forecast calls for most of the Heartland to be a little warmer and wetter than normal which might allow for a window of opportunity to plant some corn in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan yet, the rest of the growing season needs to be perfect and long for yields to be average. Flat price can remain volatile yet corn and bean spreads might stay weak, wide and sloppy. Wheat spreads are anyone's guess as harvest quality matters and wet weather is not what the doctor ordered down in Texas. We initiated a butterfly of wn/wu, wz/wu a couple of weeks ago and still sense that this is a safe speculative trade to hold for a few more weeks.

The media is noticeably portraying the price slide in grains and beans as being the fault of the potential trade war with China and the administrations tariff stance. No mention of excellent South American crops, potential for record wheat production in European Russia and the Middle East, a more fiscally austere monetary policy and/or, specifically to beans, that there's a great probability that we plant more acres than what the USDA projected. Ready to pull and Elvis and damage the television!

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
sbruce@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com


Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604



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About the author


Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at sbruce@walshtrading.com.
 
 
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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