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NOPA Crush on Tap as Map Updates Dominate


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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for May 15, 2019.

Grain markets are higher with corn up 3 3/4, soybeans up 3, and wheat up 4 1/4. Concerns over US planting remain as do hopes that a trade deal can be reached with China. A few overnight comments from the Chinese add to the trade confusion, but any further deterioration in the planting forecast will likely spark more short covering by the funds.

April NOPA soybean crush will be out today at 11:00 AM CDT. Analysts expect to see 161.6 million bushels crushed, which would be 0.4% over last year. This would be good to see as we are already ahead of last year as a whole.

IEG Vantage (formerly Informa Economics) estimates US corn acreage at 90.692 million acres. Soybeans are estimated at 86.437. As a reminder, USDA is at 92.8 million and 84.6 million respectively.

Australia will import foreign-grown grain for the first time since 2007, after the Department of Agriculture approved a permit to import bulk wheat from Canada. Speculation about imports has circulated for months as drought devastated the winter crop on Australia's east coast, driving up domestic prices for grain. (ABC Rural)

Ukraine's IAE estimates the countries wheat output at 26.7 million tonnes, 9% above their previous estimate due to an increase in winter wheat yields on good weather. Overall grain harvest in the country is seen dropping 2.3%, however.

Managed money funds were estimated to be big buyers in yesterday's rally buying 45,000 corn contracts, 22,000 soybeans, 10,500 wheat, 10,000 soymeal, and 5,500 soyoil.

President Trump on Tuesday called the trade war with China "a little squabble" and insisted talks between the world's two largest economies had not collapsed, as investors remained on guard for a further escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs. (Reuters) He further vowed that a deal would happen.

China's Foreign Ministry has responded overnight saying that, "it is the US that is defining the trade dispute as a trade war. China is only taking action in self defense. If the US doesn't want to do business with China, others will fill the gap."

Economic reports out today include Retail Sales at 7:30 AM CDT, Industrial Production at 8:15, Business Inventories at 9:00, and Crude Oil Inventories at 9:30.

Monday's wholesale beef trade was higher. Yesterday's was mixed. Showlist numbers, the cattle offered this week for next week's processing, was 12,600 under last week. Last year this specific week was the peak in kill numbers (not beef production). Next week was lower by 16,135. It appears this year is following that same plan.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates African Swine Fever could imply a 20% reduction in Chinese pig production. Allendale estimates that current rates are 10% - 15% under last year and that will widen to the trough number of 25% under last year by Q1. Many in the trade are assuming a 30% reduction.

From 2011 - 2013 China accounted for 10% - 13% of all our exports. Last year they were at a 6% share at 335 million lbs. If China had starting buying from us in January then we would guesstimate exports of 939 million to 1.812 billion for 2019. That would imply a year over year increase in US pork exports of 16% - 31%. The question of if we'll see bigger buying remains to be seen.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.46 and select down .08. The CME feeder index is 135.07. Pork cut-out values were up .40.


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Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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