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Corn/Wheat Possibilities


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We are approaching parity in the central Heartland with wheat/corn. Remember 60 pounds of wheat per bushels and only 56 pounds of corn. Grain consuming units like turkeys and chickens respond better to wheat than cattle and hogs but if wheat starts having some quality issues and gets discounted then it's always easier to work it into most rations for most grain consuming units. The World is enjoying a potential production glut with wheat as continental Europe looks great as does India and other Middle East and Western Asia producers. Toledo lost the ability to deliver corn yet, 2 ppm vomitoxin wheat at a 20 cent discount might make wheat/unwheat deliverable stocks attractive to the Southeastern poultry market in July/August/September. Deep thoughts!

If an army travels on its stomach then China may be staying close to home if it follows through on threats to curtail purchases of proteins and feed from the US. Some are saying that nefarious players have been pushing grains down to contaminate the present administrations standing with the farm community while others are saying that excellent production in all grains and oilseeds in South America has been more of a factor in the price slide. Indications that there may be $15 billion in aid made available to the agricultural community may cushion the impact of China shunning our markets. Yet, we still have to deal with the abundant near term stocks of beans, corn and wheat. Spreads could remain unexciting for the near term.

Flat price remains headline driven but, the undercurrent of problematic weather remains. Funds are short and farmers are long and the showdown comes in wheat at harvest and we're a month away there and in corn the fight might begin during pollination and this is going to be very staggered this year. Beans will have to go through an August of 100 degrees plus with little to no moisture to have any sort of yield loss. I'm kidding but, beans are a very hardy plant and can withstand very harsh conditions, except a hard freeze in early September!

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
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Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at sbruce@walshtrading.com.
 
 
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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