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The fresh 6 to 10 day forecast calls for warmer than normal in the Eastern Heartland, cooler than normal in the Western Heartland and wetter than normal all over! Great for the crops in the ground if they're still green but not so great for the seed in the sack!

Being at or below the cost of production is not getting producers more incentive to get into the field before it's more than dry enough. Prevent Planting is a factor and most of the Eastern Heartland has until the first week of June to get the crop in. Three weeks may be enough yet, the race to maturity before the first frost comes into play and any hiccup in the World as to any problems with corn/wheat/sorghum/quinoa/amaranth production could spark a rally.

Illinois corn plantings at 11% compared with the 5 year average of 88% reveals that there are circumstances and factors at work in our market which outweigh this problem. The analog year of 1993 showed us having similar problems with plantings and the market fell despite yet, more rains in July sparked an explosion. The other "I" states of Indiana and Iowa aren't doing so well either yet, it's been known to the market and the funds have shaken off the signs and pitched what they've wanted to pitch. Yet, historically, pushing prices below the cost of production this early in the growing season takes guts....see 1993!

Texas wheat heading is at the average pace.......it's amazing how Mother Nature works. The crop got a little better according to the ratings yet, we'll monitor the situation as the rains and humidity start at a time when they are not desired in the areas getting ready for harvest. Soybeans are like Jason in Halloween and just will never die! Regardless, corn and bean spreads could remain soft and sloppy while we are approaching that time of the crop year in wheat when quality might have an impact on spreads.

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
sbruce@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com


Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604



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About the author


Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at sbruce@walshtrading.com.
 
 
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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