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Cattle continues lower. The Nemenoff Report 05/02/19


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Financials: June Bonds are currently 0’1 higher at 147’20, 10 Yr. Notes0’03.5 lower at 123’15.0 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’04 lower at 115’13.0. During the last week I recommended the long Dec2019 / short Dec. 2020 Eurodollar spread at -27 points to the 2019 contract. I feel that the 2020 contract is at an excessive discount to the 2019 contract and even if the Fed either raises or lowers rates this spread will narrow over time. My initial objective is -16 points. I am still looking at both buying and/or selling Bonds on an extreme move, either going long below 144’15 or short above 149’15.
Grains: July Corn is currently fractionally higher at 368’6, Beans 2’4 lower at 849’2 and Wheat 4’0 higher at 440’0. Last week I recommended the long side for Corn on a break. If you went long (the market traded below 360’0 several times) look for a profit taking opportunity. I feel the current rally is mostly due to concerns about yield given the recent deluge of wet weather.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle worked sharply lower over the last week given increased marketing’s and a lack of resolution with Chinese trade war. We have been long the June Cattle 116 put/ short the 114 put spread from 42 points. This spread is currently in the money (June Cattle settlement yesterday was 113.975). I recommended last week taking profits above 90 points, yesterday’s settlement was 1.075. Take profits.
Silver: July Silver is currently 5 cents lower at 14.68. Silver, along with most other metals, has been battered of late despite a recent weakening of the Dollar. Given the recent break I am still willing to hold a small position in my “portfolio”.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 3.00 higher at 2926.00. Given yesterday’s range of 2961.0-2916.00 we may have put in a short-term top. I remain on the sidelines.
Currencies: AS of this writing the June Euro is 12 higher at 1.1255, the Yen 9 higher at 0.89990, the Pound lower at 1.3076 and the Dollar Index 7 lower at 97.340. I remain short the Dollar Index from above 97.00 and will use a protective buy stop above the recent high at 98.200.

Regards,
Marc
 



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About the author


Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc began his career as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Marc Nemenoff quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the CME and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations & Advertising, and Orientation & Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included: Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Contact Marc Nemenoff: (800) 769-7021 or at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com

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