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FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures

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Euro (June)

Session close:Settle at 1.1268, down 44.5

Fundamentals:The selling in the Euro resumed this morning. You can call it technical, because it certainly in part was given the failure at first key resistance; something we referenced here yesterday. It was also fundamental on a number of fronts. Italy is back in the news ahead of a cabinet meeting in Rome today that is expected to solidify a number of measures. Europes third-largest nation is reinvigorating concerns after last years fight over austerity measures has failed to produce any growth with Italy now lingering in recession territory. On the data front, Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in worse than expected while U.S New Home Sales beat and rose to a 16-month high. Ultimately, todays swing includes a bit of pent-up selling coming out of Mondays holiday session and as the Dollar reestablished its bullish momentum late last week. Tomorrow, we look to German Ifo Business Climate at 3:00 am CT. This is a number that beat in March for the first time since September but this indicator that measures current business climate and expectations six months out is still lingering at the lowest level in three years. A German 10-year Bund auction follows at 4:40 am CT and could play a crucial role in confirming momentum established earlier in the session. U.S Mortgage data is due at 6:00 am CT and there is a 5-year Note auction is at noon CT.

Technicals:Price action failed directly at first key resistance and just as we said here yesterday, a failure to trade out above here though tomorrow will encourage another wave from the bear-camp. The Euro traded into key support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Yen (June)

Session close:Settled at .8980, up 7.5 ticks

Fundamentals:The Yen firmed up from session lows in a very surprising U-turn after New Homes Sales beat expectations and equity markets extended gains. Although risk-assets moved higher along with the Dollar, U.S Treasuries and the Yen defied those outside pressures. One answer is these two safe-havens are paying attention to more global factors. Maybe theyre watching the weakness in Copper or worried about the less stimulus from China which has dented their stock market run. Todays second half action is certainly something for traders to pay attention to. Still, the trend in the Yen is down and we look to a Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow night.

Technicals:The Yen did pull an outside bullish reversal today. However, we will take this with a grain of salt and simply as a failure to extend lows as there is strong major three-star support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Aussie (June)

Session close:Settled at .7100, down 39 ticks

Fundamentals:Reports that China will not continue to extend fresh liquidity in the manner it has through the first quarter has certainly left a sour taste for Aussie bulls. This coupled with a technical failure at our upside target last week and broad U.S Dollar strength and we now have an Aussie more than 1% from its high. Tonight is crucial, we look to CPI from Australia at 8:30 pm CT.

Technicals:Price action is now below major three-star support at .Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Canadian (June)

Session close:Settled at .7450, down 54.5 ticks

Fundamentals:The Canadian got trucked today ahead of tomorrows Bank of Canada meeting and as the U.S Dollar strengthened. Furthermore, it ignored a better than expected Wholesale Sales number and a continues to ignore strength in Crude Oil. The Bank of Canada is not expected to hike rates through the rest of the year, but their rhetoric will be important tomorrow. Overall, we maintain the inability for the Canadian to rally even the slightest bit alongside Crude Oil speaks volume to how overvalued it is even at this level.

Technicals:Price action finished at the lowest level in almost two months and right at major three-star support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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