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Not There, Yet!


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It's tough to resist the temptation to pick a bottom especially when the weather isn't looking cooperative for getting the bean, corn, oat, spring and durum wheat into the ground at a reasonable time. If old crop stocks weren't as plentiful as they are then we might have a little bit of delayed planting anxiety but, the market needs proof, and this will take time, that we will have lower acreage and/or lower yields. Maybe after May 10?

The macroeconomic factors of the market appear to be keeping prices languishing. The Fed and other central banks appear to be resolved to mark time and not over engineer the money supply. It might be nice to return to steady money supply growth and allowing the free market to determine where interest rates trade, yet that means that the powers that be give up their tools of persuasion. The recent large block sale of gold raises questions. Trade deals with China and Europe remain critical market factors and the trade remains respectful. Yet, importers with money will always be sought out by exporting entities and the market finds a way. Any reaction to a trade deal usually is an overreaction!

First notice day on the May futures next Tuesday and basis levels suggest that we might not see a squeeze in anything. Spreads could remain on the defensive in corn, beans and wheat while oats might be the only grain with bull spread potential with the July and forward contracts. It is a general rule of thumb that only deliverable elevators and end users be involved, if necessary, in the delivery month. Say good bye to May everything!

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
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Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at sbruce@walshtrading.com.
 
 
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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