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NASDAQ Futures Close to New Historical High


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April 18, 2019

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

NASDAQ futures advanced to new record highs yesterday.

Today, U.S. stock index futures are higher with support coming from stronger than expected U.S. economic reports.

Jobless claims declined for the fifth week in a row by 5,000 to a nearly 50-year low of 192,000 in the week ended April 13. Economists forecast a 204,000 reading.

Retail sales posted their biggest gain in 1 years. Retail sales soared 1.6% last month,when economists expected sales to climb 1.1%.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve April business index was 8.5 when 11 was anticipated.

The 8:45 central time April PMI Composite FLASH is anticipated to be 54.3.

The 9:00 February business inventories is anticipated to be up .3% and the 9:00 March leading indicators report is estimated to show an increase of .3%.

Traders are monitoring the latest developments in trade discussions between the U.S. and China with the countries planning two rounds of face-to-face meetings, as trade negotiators hope for a deal signing ceremony in late May or in early June.

My view is that the global reflation story remains on track and easier credit conditions from most of the worlds central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.

CURRENCY FUTURES

U.S. dollar is higher due to the stronger than expected retail sales and jobless claims reports, while the euro currency fell to a one week low after weak manufacturing surveys.

The IHS Market composite purchasing managers index for the euro zonedeclined to a three month low of 51.3in April from 51.6 in March. A reading above 50 suggests increased activity.

The British pound is lower in spite of news that U.K. retail sales surged, as consumers defied the Brexit uncertainties. U.K. retail sales increased for a third consecutive month in March, increasing 1.1% from February when economists expected a decline.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Yesterdays release of the Feds Beige Book showed slight to moderate growth.

This report on economic conditions is used at Federal Open Market Committee meetings and is produced approximately two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the FOMC. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for May 1.

Financial futures are predicting there is a 47% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its December 11.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 19S&P 500

Support 2885.00 Resistance 2918.00

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 96.550 Resistance 97.370

June 19Euro Currency

Support 1.12800 Resistance 1.13670

June 19Japanese Yen

Support .89560 Resistance .89950

June 19Canadian Dollar

Support .74630 Resistance .75150

June 19Australian Dollar

Support .7153 Resistance .7217

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 146^0 Resistance 146^30

June 19Gold

Support 1273.0 Resistance 1284.0

May 19Copper

Support 2.9000 Resistance 2.9700

May 19 Crude Oil

Support 63.36 Resistance 64.33

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For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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