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STOCK INDEX FUTURES

U.S. stock index futures are higher due to news that China's economy grew 6.4% year-over- year in the first three months of 2019, coming in slightly above expectations of an expansion of 6.3%.

The 9:00 central time February wholesale trade report is expected to show an increase of .3%.

Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post a year-to-year decline in profits, which would mark their first annual decline in earnings since 2016. Analysts now expect first quarter S&P 500 profits to have dropped anywhere from between 1.8% to 4.2% year-on-year.

However, of the 42 S&P 500 companies that have posted results so far, 81% have beaten consensus estimates, which compares with the 65% average beat rate going back to 1994.

It is my belief that investors are looking past the ongoing first quarter earnings season, with the benchmark S&P 500 index now within 1% of its closing record high that was hit in September.

My view is that the global reflation story remains on track and easier credit conditions from most of the worlds central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.

CURRENCY FUTURES

U.S. Dollar edged lower after stronger than expected first quarter China GDP data.

The British pound declined, as U.K. consumer inflation accelerated less than predicted in March and remains below the Bank of England's target of 2%.

The Office for National Statistics said the consumer price index increased 1.9% year-to-year, which was the same as in February. Economists had expected inflation to be 2%.

Higher crude oil prices helped the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar to advance.

There was additional support for the currency of Canada on news that Canada's consumer price index climbed 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in March, which is an increase from a 1.5% gain in the previous month. March's data was in line with analysts expectations.

The Australian dollar advanced to more than a two month high after Chinese economic growth beat forecasts. By some estimates China takes 39% of Australias exports.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are lower as flight to quality longs continue to be liquidated in light of news of better economic data from China.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank PresidentJames Bullardwill deliver a presentation on the U.S. economy and monetary policyat 11:30 and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank PresidentPatrick Harkerwill deliver a speech about the economic outlook,also at 11:30.

At 1:00 the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on the economy in advance of the May 1 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

This report on economic conditions is used at Federal Open Market Committee meetings and is produced approximately two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the FOMC.

Financial futures are predicting there is a 38% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its December 11 policy meeting. Yesterday the probability was 39%.


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 19S&P 500

Support 2906.00 Resistance 2928.00


June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 96.430 Resistance 96.800

June 19Euro Currency

Support 1.13310 Resistance 1.13860


June 19Japanese Yen

Support .89560 Resistance .89840


June 19Canadian Dollar

Support .74830 Resistance .75520

June 19Australian Dollar

Support .7155 Resistance .7222

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 145^24 Resistance 146^20

June 19Gold

Support 1273.0 Resistance 1284.0

May 19Copper

Support 2.9250 Resistance 3.0100

May 19 Crude Oil

Support 64.03 Resistance 64.88

Please contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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