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Soybeans - Just My Opinion

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May Soybeans closed 3.5 cents higher ($8.98.75), July 3.75 cents higher ($9.12.5) & Nov 3.25 cents higher ($9.31)

May Soybean Meal closed $3.1 higher ($311.0), July $3.1 higher ($314.7) & Dec $2.5 higher ($321.1)

May Soybean Oil closed 14 pts lower ($28.81), July 17 pts lower ($29.11) & Dec 19 pts lower ($29.85)

USDA announces 140 K T. old crop soybeans sold to unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections 460.6 K T. vs. 460-900 K T. expected Cumulative 30.648 M T. vs. 51.03 M T. target

Comments out of Washington over the weekend renew the wishing and hoping for a trade deal between China and the US sooner vs. later. Washington has asked China to remove its Ag tariffs; sounds political to me as the farm belt is not too happy with the man in the WH. If I didnt know better we have some politicos in Washington watching the soybean market. When it gets close to becoming unglued here come the statements suggesting just how good the trade talks are developing. Weekly export inspections were barely short of dismal. The NOPA crush data came in stronger than expected; 170 million bu. vs. 168 million expected.

Not much is happening with the interior soybean basis. The processor basis has been pretty steady dating back to the first of the month. The river basis has a slightly firmer look when comparing it to where it was on the first of the month. The Gulf soybean basis continues with its recent easing motion; down about 6-7 cents from the first of the month. Soybean spreads inch wider within the old crop while old crop gains fractionally on the new crop. The truck meal basis looks better as rail is having difficulties out west. Meal spreads are steady upfront. Old crop meal gains fractionally on the new crop.

Old crop soybeans have been stuck in a 13 cent trading range for the past 9 days. Closes above $9.20 July should spark some additional short covering. Closes below $9.07 should spark the opposite. The soybean meal market is not much different looking with the tight trading range over the past number of days. Momentum indicators are flat in the middle of the grid for soybeans while meal is trying to turn higher from its middle point within the grid. I still feel like a lost soul as far as the soybean market is concerned. I dont think a trade deal with China will have that much impact on the old crop US soybean market as SA origin is still a much cheaper alternative.

Daily Support & Resistance for 04/16

July Soybeans: $9.06 - $9.20

July Soybean Meal: $311.5 317.5

July Soybean Oil: $28.90 - $29.50

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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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