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Trading the Noise - Blue Line Morning Express

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Morning Express

As you know, our report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:30 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 4 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold. Contact our trade desk, we cover more - Treasuries, Nat Gas, Copper etc -312-278-0500 or

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E-mini S&P (June)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2891.75, down 2.75

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks jumped early this morning after Chinese Trade Balance data showed a recovery in Exports from last months dismal read. However, the move is arguably just as equally related to deal-making with Chevron offering to buy Anadarko for $33 billion. First, on the data front, after February Exports plummeted 20.8% YoY, the March read showed a surge of 14.2% YoY. Adding to the tailwind was stronger Chinese New Loans data and less-worse February Eurozone Industrial Production at -0.2% versus -0.5% expected with January being revised better. Getting swept under the rug amidst a whirlwind of positive news this morning was Chinese Imports dropping 7.5% YoY, missing expectations for the fourth time in five months. Quietly in the details of this data was a 28% plunge in imports from the U.S and this certainly should not sit well in trade negotiations with the U.S. Still, the data has boosted equity markets from the U.S, Europe and Japan, however, Chinas Shanghai Composite could not close in the green.

JPMorgan officially kicked off earnings season this morning by beating estimates. The stock is up about 2% premarket and lifting Wells Fargo ahead of their report. Deal-making is certainly supporting sentiment and confidence in the economy after Chevron offered to buy Anadarko Petroleum for $33 billion. Speaking of sentiment, fresh April Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT; strong reads here will keep todays tape on a path of least resistance north. We also look to Import and Export Price Index at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals:After three straight session of holding our strong support and what we called a buy opportunity at 2878.50-2882.75, the S&P has again turned north breaking out of its immediate-term consolidation range. It is up 0.5% early and facing major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary Bias and levels.

Crude Oil (May)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 63.58, down 1.03

Fundamentals:Crude Oil spiked at 3:00 am CT with the catalyst ultimately being Chevrons confidence in the energy space by offering to buy Anadarko for $33 billion. Yes, a recovery in Chinese Exports in March from a dismal February is certainly helping. Furthermore, less-worse Eurozone Industrial Production is doing its part in burying global recessionary fears. Momentum is priming for a strong finish to the week with Gasoline demand, violence in Libya reducing production and the fresh deal-making news all deterring sellers as price action is testing the 64.60-64.79 ceiling formed this week. Baker Hughes Rig Count is due at noon CT.

Technicals:We continue to hold a favorable Bias for Crude Oil and broader risk-sentiment simply because the momentum is undeniable. Pullbacks not only in Crude Oil but other asset-classes such as the S&P are shallower and shallower each time; supports are holding. The elevated state does mean traders must stay vigilant in understanding the cause of any pullbacks but for now we remain upbeat on Crude targeting ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary Bias and levels.

Gold (June)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1293.3, down 20.6

Fundamentals:Golds bloodbath yesterday is showing signs of trying to stabilize on Dollar weakness. Less-worse Eurozone Industrial Production and upbeat Exports from China have taken safe-haven winds out of the Dollar, however, they have added pressure to Treasuries. On a positive note, Gold is stabilizing amidst this tug-of-war, but still remains vulnerable due to yesterdays technical damage. Pressure kicked-in early on the metal yesterday ahead of a deluge of Fed speak. In the aftermath, we have now seen the probability that rates stay unchanged this year jump to 60.3%. Fresh April Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT and this will ultimately set a tone to finish out the week.

Technicals:There is no beating around the bush, yesterday brought immense technical damage. The disappointing factor was the selling came in front of trend line resistance and on the heels of an upbeat close. We began Neutralizing our Bullish Bias here as price action began edging lower. There will be some headwinds to repair this damage. On the bright side, Gold held support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary Bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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