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ECB, CPI, FOMC & what next - Blue Line FX Rundown

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FX Rundown

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Todays FOMC Minutes proved to be a bit of a snoozer on price action. However, there were some good tidbits such that some members could find it appropriate to raise rates later this year if the economy improved. While exuding data dependence, some members seemed to believe the economic slowdown would prove to be transitory. On the heels of CPI lower than expectations this morning the odds of a Fed rate cut this year increased from 50.3% to 55.4% (with the other half of the pie being that rates stay unchanged). The Core MoM read came in at +0.1% and the YoY read was +2.0%. The British Pound led gains against the Dollar today after a slew of strong economic indicators. GDP, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production and Construction all beat. The Euro whipsawed after the ECB left policy unchanged and was negative on growth as expected. Price action lost half a penny before clawing back to unchanged by the second half of the session. The buildup is now for the results of an emergency meeting in Brussels to extend the Brexit deadline. The Aussie matched the Pound stride for stride with gains beginning overnight on stronger Westpac Consumer Setniment and comments by the Assistant RBA Governor. Strong commodity price action, favorable risk-sentiment and progress on the enforcement issues in the U.S and China trade talks all provided a tailwind through U.S hours. Price action in the Yen and Canadian was less enthusiastic. The Yen did trade higher but faces strong overhead resistance while the Canadian is tethered to its neutral zone.

Tonight, we look to Chinese CPI and PPI reads. Tomorrow morning, regional CPI is released from Europe, PPI and Jobless Claims from the U.S and New Housing Price Index from Canada. The highlight of the morning will be comments from a trio of 2019 voting Fed members; Governor Clarida at 8:30 am CT, NY President Williams at 8:35 and St. Louis Fed President Bullard at 8:40. Later in the day, Fed Governor Quarles speaks at 10:50 am CT, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari at 1:00 pm CT and Fed Governor Bowman at 3:00 pm CT. There is a 30-year Bond Auction at noon CT.

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Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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