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May OJs recent efforts to hold the 120.00 support area failed big time yesterday. It then went through the 115.00 support and today failed the110.00 support. That has been the low end of support going back to 2012 and where a major bottom formed then and again in 2015. Even previous to that 110.00 has been at sometimes resistance and other times support for OJ. Further suggesting that level is an important one to OJ.

During and since the 2012 low May OJ (on the monthly chart) has tested 110.00 eleven times and only closed under it one month. It quickly recovered the next. In early 2015 it actually reached down to 105.00 but that same month it closed, you guessed it, right back over 110.00. I point this out again to show how important this level has been and could be again.

Knowing this is important in understanding OJs further potential to the downside. Based on previous behavior the probabilities now suggest we are looking at the tail end of the OJ bear market and one should now watch for bottoming action. Todays low was 107.65 and that sure suggests 105.00 could be a target if it can get there.

Keep in mind, even though the fundamentals are bearish, as with every market, those fundamentals will be reflected in the price of OJ at some point balancing a market and OJ seems to be doing that as we speak.

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May wheat It continues to weaken technically on the daily chart. It closed under the 20 avg. today for the first time since March 20. If it takes out 356, it will be triggering a sell on the weekly chart. This does not change the long term: the major correction wheat has had since last year is the correction to a second major wave up on its monthly chart. Before getting serious about a third wave up it may need to do more back and fill and that could be what this action is about. Watching closely to buy. May corn it took out the low and confirmed another wave down on the daily chart. Can only watch. May beans they continue to suggest another wave down they triggered a sell today from yesterdays inside day. Whether they will hold the contract low, there is no way we can know that yet. Just watching. May meal it formed another inside day today. It suggests more selling. I want to buy but need to watch more. May bean oil no change: it too is suggesting another wave down with the same scenario as beans.


June hogs they triggered a sell today and closed limit down. Keep stops at 98.97. June cattle still sitting there attempts to recover over the 20 avg. keep failing. As mentioned, on the daily chart, the 10 avg. has been under the 20 avg. for over a week. That indicates the start of a downtrend. Now the macd is turning negative. Yet they sit there. Just watching. May feeders the buy is still intact but they cant get over 151.00 and now the macd is turning negative. Just watching.


May OJ It could reach down to 105.00 as mentioned yesterday. May cocoa stops were reached today. It then rallied. July cotton could test 77.60 support. Keep stops at 76.65. May coffee - no confirmation of a bottom yet. July sugar switching to July. It is now suggesting it is pulling the same thing cocoa did before it broke out of its consolidation resulting in the current rally. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details.


Exit May cocoa. Long 22.80 (3.29). Exit 23.90 4.9). Profit $1045 (after costs).
Long July cotton. Long 78.50 (4.1). Stop 76.65. Potential projection 82.75.
Short June hogs. Short 96.72 (4.9). Stop 98.97. Potential projection 91.50.


Buy July sugar. Buy 12.95 stop. Protective stop 12.60. Potential projection 13.60. (Potential risk $392. Potential reward $728). Margin: $1047.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a buy signal.
2. The monthly chart has confirmed a 1,2,3 bottom formation.
3. The weekly chart has a buy signal.
4. On the weekly chart sugar keeps holding above both the 10 & 20 support.
5. A buy at 12.95 would also trigger another buy on the weekly chart.
6. On the daily chart sugar closed back over the 100 avg. today.
7. The daily chart has a previous buy signal.

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