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U.S.-China Trade Talks Apparently Delayed - Stock Index Futures Performing Well

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March 18, 2019


Global equity markets advanced to the highest level in five months, and last week the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted the strongest weekly gains this year.

Stock index futures are holding up well today in spite of reports over the weekend saying a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping was unlikely to happen until June. A meeting had previously been expected this for late this month and then in April.

The 9:00 central time March housing market index is expected to be 63.

Since the lows were made in late December, stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest, which should be viewed as a sign of long term strength.


The U.S. dollar is lower today following its worst week since early December.

Pressure on the greenback is linked to the belief that the Federal Open Market Committee may be moving toward accommodation this year.

The euro currency is higher in spite of news that the euro zone's merchandise trade surplus for January decreased sharply from a year ago.

The British pound is lower as investors closely watch the Brexit situation. U.K. Prime Minister May is expected to bring her already twice rejected proposal for an agreement dictating the U.K.s relationship with the E.U. for a third vote this week. U.K. policymakers last week rejected the prospect of exiting without an agreement and called for an extension of the countrys Brexit deadline from March 29.

TheJapanese yen is lower in spite of news that Japan's industrial production in January declined less than estimated earlier. Industrial production fell a 3.4% month-to-month in January, following a 3.7% decline estimated earlier.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to firming prices for crude oil.

The Australian dollar hit a three week high due to increasing prices for industrial commodities and on expectations for an accommodative Federal Reserve meeting this week.


The Federal Open Market Committee will conclude a two day meeting on Wednesday with investors focused on the policy statement and remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors expect the Fed to maintain the dovish tone it struck at its January meeting when it put its rate increasing plan on hold and became data dependent.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 72% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 28% chance for a 25 basis point decline in 2019 and virtually no chance of a rate increase.

Futures are lower in spite of the belief that the Federal Open Market Committee will signal a dovish policy stance this week, which is a sign of at least short term weakness.

Over the near term futures are caught between the bullish influence of a weakening global economy and overseas central bank accommodation and the bearish influence of optimism for a U.S.-China trade agreement.

A U.S.-China trade deal, or strong hint of one, would be a catalyst to take futures lower.


June 19S&P 500

Support 2821.00 Resistance 2839.00

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 95.740 Resistance 96.110

June 19Euro Currency

Support 1.14020 Resistance 1.14580

June 19Japanese Yen

Support .90150 Resistance .90440

June 19Canadian Dollar

Support .75030 Resistance .75460

June 19Australian Dollar

Support .7081 Resistance .7126

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 145^16 Resistance 146^12

April 19Gold

Support 1296.0 Resistance 1311.0

May 19Copper

Support 2.8950 Resistance 2.9400

May 19 Crude Oil

Support 58.21 Resistance 59.43

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

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