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More Short Covering for Grains?


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Grain Express

March 18, 2019

Corn (May)


Last Weeks Close: May corn futures finished Fridays session up 2 cents, extending gains for the week to 8 cents. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a all-time record short position of 257,965 futures and options. The funds also hold a record net short position in grain and oil-seeds combined, short 504k futures and options.


Fundamentals: Money flow and weather chatter will likely be the hot topic talking point this week, coupled with the large net short fund position. Market participants will also start gathering estimates for the end of quarter USDA report, we will have estimates out by next week.


Technicals: .....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.


Soybeans (May)


Last Weeks Close:May soybean futures finished Fridays session up 10 cents, trading in a range of 12 cents. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold roughly 40,000 contracts for the week ending March 12th, putting their net short position at 90,197 futures and options. This is not a record net short position, but it is big enough to register in the top 10, coming in at the 8th largest short position on record. The funds also hold a record net short position in grain and oil-seeds combined, short 504k futures and options.


Fundamentals: Soybean futures finished last weeks trade on a high note thanks to short covering from funds. Money flow will be key to watch this week as funds may look to continue reducing their short position. Trade talks with China have stalled and it may be another month before another meeting between delegates is set up. Market participants will also start gathering estimates for the end of quarter USDA report, we will have estimates out by next week.


Technicals:....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.


Wheat (May)


Last Weeks Close:May wheat futures finished Fridays session up 7 cents, extending gains for the week to 21 cents. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net short position of 72,148 futures and options and an all wheat short position of 130,327 futures and options. The funds also hold a record net short position in grain and oilseeds combined, short 504k futures and options.


Fundamentals: Short covering was a key player in last weeks rally to lift prices over 30 cents off of their lows. We will continue to keep a closes eye on money flow as that will likely be a driver this week. Last weeks exports were less than impressive, we will want to see bigger numbers this week to help keep a near term floor in the market. Market participants will also start gathering estimates for the end of quarter USDA report, we will have estimates out by next week.


Technicals: ....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.


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About the author


Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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